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This election, exit poll numbers, especially Axis My India’s shocker, pit DMK+ against AIADMK+ in a squeeze, with TVK exploding as a debutant force
Tamil Nadu’s 2026 Assembly polls set up a high-stakes contest between DMK, AIADMK and TVK.
Will the DMK retain power in Tamil Nadu? Does the AIADMK have the edge? Is Tamil Nadu headed towards a fractured mandate? Is Vijay’s TVK winning? The wild exit poll results for Tamil Nadu have interestingly kept all these questions open-ended. While most of them have predicted MK Stalin’s return as the Chief Minister, some have predicted a hung mandate with a slight edge to the AIADMK alliance and one of them has, in fact, predicted a win for Vijay.
While exit polls have given a predictionthis may or may not translate into actual results, and here’s why parties would want to hold their horses. The Tamil Nadu election results will be out on May 4.
Tamil Nadu this year recorded a record voter turnout of 85.15 per cent, much beyond the previous record of 78.29 per cent set during the 2011 assembly elections. Historically, higher voter turnouts have resulted in not just decisive mandates but at times, also regime change. In 2011, a high voter turnout helped the AIADMK sweep to power. In 2021, the DMK returned with a comfortable majority when the state saw high voting.
| Polling Agency | DMK+ | ADMK+ | TVC | OTH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote Vibe | 103–113 | 114–124 | 4–10 | 0 |
| Axis My India | 92–110 | 22–32 | 98–120 | 0 |
| matrix | 122–132 | 87–100 | 10–12 | 0–6 |
| Peoples Pulse | 125–145 | 65–80 | 18–24 | 2–6 |
| P-Marq | 125–145 | 65–85 | 16–26 | 1–6 |
| People’s Insight | 120–140 | 60–70 | 30–40 | 0–4 |
| Praja Poll | 148–168 | 61–81 | 0 | 1–9 |
This election, exit poll numbers, especially Axis My India’s shocker, pit DMK+ against AIADMK+ in a squeeze, with TVK exploding as a debutant force. Vote Vibe to Praja Poll show wild swings – no safe bets here.
Three Reasons That Make Tamil Nadu A Must-Watch Battle
DMK+ And AIADMK+ In A Dead Heat
Titans clash with no clear winner emerging. DMK+ from 92-110 (Axis My India) to 148-168 (Praja Poll); AIADMK+ crashes to 22-32 (Axis) but climbs to 114-124 (Vote Vibe). Matrize (122-132 DMK+ vs 87-100 ADMK+), JVC (125-145 vs 65-80), and CNX mirror the mess. Sum this up and it means no alliance could hit the 118 majority mark reliably.
TVK Could Actually Win Big
Will TVK be the game-changer? Axis My India projects TVK at 98-120 seats, putting DMK+’ at 92-110 and obliterating AIADMK+ at 22-32, handing Vijay’s debutants a possible outright victory. Others like JVC (18-24), Matrize (10-12), CNX (16-26), Poll Diary/Zeenia (30-40) hinted at 20+ for Vijay, but Axis elevates TVK to frontrunner. Star pull, anti-incumbency, and youth wave could shatter the Dravidian grip, forcing a total realignment.
DMK Holds A Subtle Edge
Despite Axis chaos, most polls favour DMK+: 122-132 (Matrize), 125-145 (JVC/People’s Pulse/CNX), 120-140 (Today’s Chanakya/Zeenia), peaking at 148-168 (Praja). This signals incumbency boost from schemes and unity. Yet AIADMK+’s highs (114-124 Vote Vibe) and TVK’s raid keep it teetering. The DMK’s “lead” feels like walking a tightrope over an abyss.
Tamil Nadu’s track record shows 10-15 per cent exit poll misses, but this spread screams upset potential. With counting on May 4, expect shocks, spins, and maybe history’s hung house
April 29, 2026, 8:09 PM IST
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