New Delhi: India’s ambitious fighter jet story has reached a turning point. Once eager to expand its Rafale fleet, the government now seems more focussed on building its own fighter aircraft. Officials say the goal is to make the country self-reliant in advanced aviation technology, even if that means slowing down foreign purchases.
The Air Force (IAF), however, faces an urgent shortage. It needs 42 fighter squadrons to defend the country’s skies, but presently operates only 31. The gap has been widening for years. Senior officers have repeatedly pushed for more Rafale jets, arguing that the French-built fighter jets provide unmatched combat readiness.
The IAF recently submitted another proposal for 114 Rafale aircraft, but the government sent it back for further detailing. The estimated cost of the deal crosses Rs 2 lakh crore. Officials have asked for a clearer roadmap that includes local manufacturing and technology transfer.
Insiders say the government wants Dassault Aviation, the French maker of Rafale, to manufacture major components in India. But defence experts caution that time is slipping away. If the deal does not move forward within a few months, they say, it may no longer make sense.
A retired Air Force officer told defence website IDRW that the “window for the Rafale deal is closing fast”. Once India’s indigenous jets, Tejas Mk-2 and the futuristic Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), pick up speed, justifying another Rafale purchase will become difficult.
A 4.5-generation Indian fighter jet, the Tejas Mk-2 is progressing steadily. Its prototype is expected to be ready by mid-2026, and the first flight is scheduled for 2027. Full-scale production could start by 2029 or 2030. The aircraft will feature advanced avionics and an indigenous AESA radar.
Before that, the earlier version Tejas Mk-1 is already in production. The first batch will soon be handed over to the Air Force.
Meanwhile, the AMCA, India’s own fifth-generation stealth fighter, is being developed rapidly. Its prototype is expected by 2030, with trials to follow and induction planned around 2035.
A Costly, Delayed Purchase
India has already purchased 36 Rafale jets for the Air Force and is acquiring 29 more for the Navy. But experts say another Rafale deal would come with a steep price tag and long delays. Even if a contract were signed today, deliveries would not begin for at least three years.
The government is also pushing for deeper technology transfer and domestic manufacturing, which would extend negotiations even further. At the same time, India’s homegrown Tejas Mk-2 is expected to enter serial production within a similar timeframe.
This overlap raises a question: should India invest billions more in foreign jets when its own aircraft will be ready around the same time?
A New Player In The Race
The international picture adds another twist. Russia has offered India its fifth-generation Su-57E fighter jet and is willing to accept nearly all of New Delhi’s terms, including 100% technology transfer. This has made India’s strategic choice even harder.
If New Delhi agrees, it could gain access to advanced Russian aviation systems while strengthening bilateral ties. But the government remains cautious, preferring to build domestic capabilities instead of deepening foreign dependency.
The Indigenous Push
The focus now is on accelerating India’s own fighter jet production. The government has asked Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to step up output and involve more private players. HAL has opened its supply chain to Indian companies, aiming to build a full ecosystem for defence manufacturing.
Once that system matures, India could roll out advanced fighter jets entirely made on home soil. The plan is not only about aircraft, it is about independence, jobs and long-term strategic strength.
Defence analysts believe that with this shift in policy, the third Rafale deal may never happen. The government’s confidence in Indian technology is growing, and the balance appears to have tilted toward the homegrown sky warriors: Tejas Mk-2 and AMCA.
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