El Niño is expected to add to the warming trend, with 2026 likely to rank among the four hottest years on record as global temperatures remain well above pre-industrial levels, according to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The WMO’s latest State of the Climate Report found that global temperatures during the first nine months of 2026 averaged 1.47°C above the pre-industrial baseline of 1850-1900.
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The reading is higher than the annual averages recorded in 2025 and 2023, placing 2026 just behind the record-breaking heat of 2024.
The WMO warned that strengthening El Niño conditions could further raise global temperatures in the closing months of 2026.
Having intensified since August, the phenomenon is forecast to become one of the strongest on record by December, potentially fuelling higher temperatures and extreme weather events into 2027.
Unveiled on the opening day of the UN climate conference COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, on Friday, the report flagged accelerating global warming and a widening imbalance in the Earth’s energy system.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the past four years were the warmest in the 177-year observational record, while ocean temperatures had hit record highs for the tenth consecutive year.
“The ongoing El Niño is forecast to be one of the strongest on record, and the heat it releases from the ocean will continue to fuel high temperatures and extreme weather into 2027,” Saulo said.
According to the report, the Earth’s energy imbalance has reached its highest level since systematic monitoring began.
This means the planet is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it releases into space, with greenhouse gas emissions trapping additional heat and disrupting the natural balance of the climate system.
The accumulation of heat is being reflected in the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide levels increased by 53 per cent from approximately 278 parts per million (ppm) in 1750 to 426.8 ppm in 2025.
Methane concentrations have also surged, rising 167 per cent from 729 parts per billion (ppb) in 1750 to 1,948 ppb in 2025, the report said.
Oceans, which absorb around 90 per cent of the excess heat generated by global warming, are experiencing unprecedented warming.
The WMO said 2026 was on course to become the tenth consecutive year of record ocean heat, raising concerns about the long-term consequences for marine ecosystems, weather patterns and coastal communities.
The report also underlined the mounting human and economic costs of climate change, with extreme weather events disrupting livelihoods, threatening food security, deepening poverty and triggering displacement across several regions.
In Europe, heatwaves, drought conditions and wildfires contributed to more than 30,000 excess deaths, according to preliminary estimates. In India, an estimated 146.5 million people were exposed to extreme heat during a heatwave in April 2026, highlighting the country’s vulnerability to increasingly intense and prolonged hot spells.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the world was entering an increasingly dangerous phase of climate extremes, with natural climate variability compounding the effects of human-induced global warming.
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“We have entered a new age of climate extremes. A supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change. Climate records keep falling. The human costs keep rising,” Guterres said.
He urged world leaders to step up emission cuts, ensure a fair transition away from fossil fuels and provide adequate financial support to countries most vulnerable to climate change.
Guterres noted that nations contributing the least to global emissions were suffering some of the worst impacts, calling for stronger international cooperation and more decisive climate action.
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