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After Sri Lanka’s Test win over England and Bangladesh’s series win over Pakistan, the mathematics of the World Test Championship (WTC) has changed. Pakistan and England are now almost out of the race to reach the final. Whereas it seems a little easier for India to reach the final.
To reach the WTC final, India will now have to win at least 5 out of the remaining 10 tests. The team will play 5 tests at home and 5 in Australia. Team India can once again face Australia or New Zealand in the final, these are the teams that defeated India in the last 2 finals.
We will know the complete maths of WTC in the story. First of all, the current position of the points table…
1. India needs 5 wins India won 6 out of 9 Tests in 3 series, drew one and lost 2. The team is on top with 68.51% points. The team has 10 Tests remaining in 3 series, out of which 5 will be at home and 5 in Australia. The team will face Bangladesh and New Zealand at home. Team India did not lose 2 Tests at home against New Zealand and none against Bangladesh.
To have more than 60% points, India needs 63 more points. The team can achieve this only with 5 wins and 1 draw. With 6 wins, the team will reach 64.03% points. Whereas after 7 wins, the team can also reach 69.3% points.
2. Australia will have to win 4 out of 7 matches Australia has won 8 matches, lost 3 and drawn one in 12 matches of 4 series. With this the team is in second place with 62.50% points. They have 7 matches left, the team will play 5 matches at home against India and 2 matches against Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka.
To have more than 60% points, the team has to win the next 4 matches. The team can also get this many points with 3 wins and 3 draws. That means their final position will be almost decided by the Test series against India at the end of the year.
3. New Zealand needs 6 wins out of 8 New Zealand won 3 and lost 3 out of 6 matches in 3 series. The team is currently at number three with 50% points. They have 3 series remaining with India, Sri Lanka and England. Apart from England, the remaining 2 series will be in Asia.
New Zealand will have to win 6 out of 8 Tests to have more than 60% points. The team can manage with 5 wins and 2 draws. But they will face the biggest difficulty in winning or drawing 3 Tests in India. Because the team has not won a Test in India for 36 years.
4. England now depends on other teams England’s hopes have been dashed after losing the test match to Sri Lanka in London. The team has reached the sixth position with 42.19% points. Out of 16 matches in 4 series, they have won 8, lost 7 and drawn one. The team will now have 2 series abroad against Pakistan and New Zealand.
Even after winning all the matches, England will be able to reach only 57.95% points. Which almost puts them out of the race. However, England will have some chances only if Australia and India lose more than 5 Tests each. On the other hand, if England loses even one of the last 6 Tests, then even if India and Australia lose more, it will not help the team.
5. How did Pakistan get out? Pakistan is on the backfoot after losing 5 Tests in the last 2 series against Australia and Bangladesh. The team has been able to defeat only Sri Lanka in 2 Tests so far, due to which they have only 19.05% points. Due to which the team is at number 8. They have 3 series remaining with England, South Africa and West Indies. The series with South Africa will remain in South Africa only.
Even if Pakistan wins the last 7 Tests, they will have a maximum of 59.52% points. For this, they will have to wait for India and Australia to lose 5 Tests each. But the biggest difficulty for Pakistan will be defeating England and South Africa. Because the team last lost the series against England in their own home by 3-0. Whereas the team won the last Test in South Africa 17 years ago.
6. What is the status of the remaining 4 teams?
- Bangladesh: The team is at the fourth position with 45.83% points. They have 6 matches against India, West Indies and South Africa. By winning all the matches, the team can achieve 72.92%. Whereas by winning 4 matches also the team will reach 56.25% points. The team has never won a Test against India, but by winning the remaining 4 Tests, the team can raise its hopes.
- Sri Lanka: It is at number five with 42.86% points. By winning the last 6 matches, the team will reach 69.23% points, even after winning 5 matches the team will remain at 61.54% points. The team has 4 Tests at home against New Zealand and Australia. While 2 Tests are in South Africa. Therefore, winning all of them seems difficult.
- South Africa: The team is at number 7 with 38.89% points. The team will play 4 Tests against Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home and 2 Tests in Bangladesh. By winning all the matches, the team will reach 69.44% points. However, they will face the most difficulty in winning the 2 Tests in Bangladesh.
- West Indies: The team is at number 9 with 18.52% points. The team has 4 Tests remaining against Bangladesh and Pakistan. Even after winning all the matches, the team will be able to reach only 43.59% points, which is not enough to qualify under any condition.
Sri Lanka kept their WTC final hopes alive by winning the Test in England.
Why is there a percentage points system in WTC? When the first cycle of the Test Championship started in 2019, the ICC had said that there would be 120 points for a series of two or more matches. 60 points for winning each match in a two-Test series. 40 points for each match in a three-match series. Similarly, there were 30 points for each match in a 4-Test series and 24 points for each Test in a five-Test series.
Due to the Corona epidemic, the ICC changed the point system in November 2020. Due to the cancellation of many series, some teams were not able to complete the required 6 series. Due to this, the ICC implemented the rule of percentage point system instead of directly calculating the points.
How are percentage points calculated? Percentage points of a team in WTC means that the team has scored that percentage of the maximum possible points. Like we appear in an exam and suppose the total marks of the exam are 500. If we get only 400 marks out of 500 then we say that I got 80% points.
As an example, currently India has 74 points in 9 matches of 3 series. The team could have scored a maximum of 108 points from 9 matches, but they have only 74 points. If we calculate it in percentage, then India will have 68.51% points. Its simple formula is, [(हासिल पॉइंट्स*100)/कुल पॉसिबल पॉइंट्स]In the condition of India this [(74*100)/108] Similarly, percentage points of other teams can also be calculated.
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