South Africa’s innings win over Australia in the second Test in Gqeberha on Thursday has fired the World Test Championship (WTC) final race wide open. Australia sit top of the points table despite their innings-and-31-run defeat, which was only their third loss in 12 matches. They have a PCT of 75.00, ahead of New Zealand in second and South Africa in third. The win took the Proteas’ PCT to 66.67, although that was not enough to overtake the Kiwis, who remain second with a PCT of 72.22 ahead of their two-match series against India.
While South Africa’s win did not significantly boost India’s qualification hopes, it prevented the Pat Cummins-led side from pulling further clear in the race to next year’s final at the Oval, London.
India, currently fifth, have seven matches remaining in the cycle: two against New Zealand and five against Australia at home. They will need to finish their campaign strongly and hope that at least two of Australia, New Zealand and South Africa slip up along the way.
Since India face both New Zealand and Australia in their remaining assignments, they need 62 points from their final seven Tests to finish with a PCT of 60, meaning they cannot afford to lose more than two of those matches.
Depending on other results, even that might not be enough. In the previous WTC cycle, the finalists finished with PCTs of 69.44 (South Africa) and 67.54 (Australia).
Bangladesh, in fourth place, are also in contention, with four of their remaining six matches scheduled at home. If results elsewhere go their way, Bangladesh have an outside chance of reaching the final.
They would need to maximise their returns in home conditions and hope that several of the teams above them fail to do the same.
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