US Recession By Year End? Polymarket Sees 36% Odds As Gas Prices Surge Toward $4 A Gallon

Last Updated:March 20, 2026, 11:34 PM IST

US pump prices have surged more than 30% this month, pushing the national average to $3.88 a gallon on Thursday.

Gas and diesel prices are displayed at a Pilot Travel Center on March 17, 2026 in Pyote, Texas. (Getty Images via AFP)

The probability of a US recession by the end of 2026 has surged to 36%, according to the prediction platform Polymarket, which tracks real-world events through crowd-sourced betting markets.

Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, allows traders to buy and sell shares on real-world outcomes, including politics, finance, and economics. Its 36% probability for a US recession reflects the market’s real-time, crowd-sourced sentiment about the economy.

This development comes as Americans also face rising gasoline prices, with the war in West Asia involving the US, Israel and Iran now entering its fourth week and showing no sign of stopping.

US pump prices have surged more than 30% this month, pushing the national average to $3.88 a gallon on Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

Analysts warn that prices could hit $4 a gallon next week, the first time since August 2022. Patrick De Haan, a GasBuddy analyst, wrote on X that prices could even rise toward $4.10 per gallon and beyond, putting further strain on households already struggling with inflation.

The war, involving between the United States, Israel, and Iran, in the Middle East has disrupted energy exports from the Gulf, a region responsible for about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

Iran’s attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have effectively blocked a major route, tightening global supply and sending energy prices higher.

Crude oil prices have climbed sharply as the war disrupts supplies from the Gulf, a key oil-producing region.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped from $67 to over $96 a barrel since the conflict began on February 28, while Brent crude briefly approached $120 before settling near $110.

(With inputs from agencies)

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