Inspired by the dance of humanoid robots at last year’s ‘Spring Festival Gala’, Hangzhou-based e-commerce live streamer Ai Lin bought her first Android for Rs 25 lakh and started a rental business. They started being taken on rent for exhibitions and events at a rate of $443/day. But Lin says, ‘The market for humanoids has not yet gained momentum because today’s robots cannot work on their own. They’re just oversized toys. This technology is years away from replacing human labor. Despite this, the Chinese government is investing billions of dollars on it to make up for the economic slowdown and shrinking workforce. Morgan Stanley estimates that there will be 1 billion humanoid robots in the world by 2050, creating a market worth more than $5 trillion. About 90% of the world’s humanoid robots are coming from China. In the year 2024, China had a stock of 20 lakh industrial robots, which was available in Japan, America, South Korea. More than Korea and Germany combined. Robots are controlling traffic, serving coffee and beer in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. According to Trend Force there are more than 140 humanoid manufacturers in China. But due to low demand this ‘industry bubble’ is being formed. “This industry has been deliberately exaggerated to show how strong China is in emerging technology,” says Lian Jae Hsu, chief analyst at Omidea. According to Chinese state media, there are more than 153,000 robot rental businesses operating in the country. Leading manufacturer Agibot has launched a rental subsidiary called Sharebot, which says this market could reach $1.5 billion by the end of 2026. Customers can get a humanoid robot, shipping, and a human operator for $517 a day. “When technology stagnates and identical robots flood the market, the initial excitement turns to fatigue and rents fall,” says Zhao Xiaohong, 52, who has invested in 8 robots. Data and hardware remain the biggest challenges; accuracy only 80% At the tech hub in Yizhuang, robots do lion dances or throw basketballs, but at a nearby center, 120 humanoids are being taught by human trainers, remote in hand, to change diapers or sort packages. There is a severe shortage of human data to train them. Chinese manufacturers are paying up to Rs 14,180 per hour to companies like X-Hy X-Humanoid for ‘physical interaction data’. ‘Heat dissipation’ is a big problem due to putting many functions in small robotic hands. Their lifespan is short and production cost is high.
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Robots became toys; Far away from human work: 1 billion humanoid robots in the world by 2050, China becomes leader, but the pace is slowing down
