Business along with studies, teenager is surprising Wall Street-Silicon: 13 year old Eli is making accurate predictions from election results to stocks.

The companies want to give Ellie a chance, but start thinking about ‘child labor laws’.

Famous American journalist Jack Newsham received a message on social media. The sender wrote that I want to help you in prediction market beat. Newsham thought it was a joke. But when 13-year-old Eli Goldfine appeared on a video call with braces on his teeth and innocence on his face, the world was stunned.

At such a young age, Ellie has made a mark in the field which is considered to be dominated by the youth of 25-30 years. Read how this boy, sitting in a small room, amidst books, telescope and laptop, is engaged in experiments by understanding the complex world of prediction market.

Eli had a very interesting debut. He first learned about PolyMarket (Prediction Market) and then started experimenting on platforms like ‘Manifold’ himself. At school he created a ‘betting market’ on student elections among his peers. Although the school administration did not like this, it was a learning opportunity for Eli and he also made a lot of profit from it.

Today Eli is not limited to earning money just by guessing. He runs a blog named ‘Bayesian Supercycle’. And also ask questions and answers from big experts on social media platforms. Recently he conducted a live interview with the founders of 5C (C) Capital (who previously worked at Kalshi). Such interviews are usually done by big business news channels. This shows Eli’s foresight.

The shelves in Ellie’s room are a testament to her versatility. On one side there are sets of comics like ‘Charlie Brown’ and ‘Calvin and Hobbes’, while on the other side there are also heavy books on algebra and optics. Eli is passionate about making telescopes and observing stars.

Recently, famous optical designer Al Naegler was also interviewed. When we discussed the projects with people from Microsoft Research, they were surprised. The interesting thing is that many companies want to give a chance to Ellie, but start thinking about ‘child labor law’. When Eli asked for an internship during an interview, the company owner laughed and said, ‘We will have to talk to your parents so that we do not become guilty of breaking the law. Big firms like ‘Thrive Capital’ also want to give them a chance. Father Ivan is a real estate developer and mother a psychologist. Both of them encourage Eli. He completes homework on the school bus so that he can have time for websites and research.

Eli’s strategy

A prediction market is a platform where people place bets on future events (such as election results), similar to the stock market; The price of ‘correct prediction’ increases, that of ‘incorrect’ decreases. Eli works like a strategist. Analyze data, create your own prediction markets like school elections. On complex economic topics, we try to understand from experts what is more likely to happen in the future.

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