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The IMD had earlier forecast the monsoon’s arrival over Kerala on May 26, but later revised its timeline after delays.
One reason behind the below-normal rainfall this year could be the emergence of El Nino conditions.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said the southwest monsoon is likely to reach Kerala in the next two to three days, marking its gradual advance over parts of the southern region.
The weather office said conditions are favourable for further progress of the monsoon into parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. It also said the system is expected to advance into parts of the Bay of Bengal and adjoining regions during the same period.
“Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu during the next two to three days,” the weather department said.
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The IMD had earlier predicted the onset of monsoon over Kerala on May 26. However, the arrival of monsoon was delayed, and the department stated on May 29 that it could happen the following week.
In its revised forecast last week, the department said the season’s rainfall would be below normal.
It noted that India is expected to receive 90 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA) this year.
LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years.
The LPA of seasonal rainfall over India as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 centimetres.
If a monsoon season sees less than 90 per cent of the LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as “deficient”.
One reason behind the below-normal rainfall this year could be the emergence of El Nino conditions, which lead to less rain during monsoon in India, the IMD said.
Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region, it said.
El Nino conditions are likely to be weak in June, and moderate to strong in September, it added.
(With inputs from PTI)
Kerala, India, India
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