The story of neighboring country Bangladesh is changing with every passing hour. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had to leave Bangladesh after the anti-reservation movement that was going on for about 2 months turned violent. She first reached Agartala by army helicopter and from there by C-130J military aircraft.
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What can happen next in the current crisis in Bangladesh, answers to 10 important questions…
Question-1: What will former Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina do now?
answer: After leaving Dhaka, Sheikh Hasina flew directly to India. According to media reports, NSA Ajit Doval and Sheikh Hasina held talks for about an hour at Hindon Airbase in Ghaziabad, UP. Indian Air Force’s Western Air Command Air Marshal PM Sinha was also present. Sheikh Hasina has been kept in the safe house of the airbase. Air Force’s Garud Commandos are deployed for her security.
Earlier, Sheikh Hasina’s C-130 transport plane landed at Hindon Airbase in Ghaziabad, UP at around 5.45 pm on Monday evening. Airbase commander Sanjay Chopra received Sheikh Hasina. Meaning, preparations for her landing here were already done. However, it is also being said that her plane has landed for refueling. At present, Air Force officials are not saying anything officially on this issue.
Experts believe that saving the life of those seeking refuge is part of India’s policies, but it does not seem that Sheikh Hasina will stay here for a long time. It is possible that her plane will be refueled and she will be sent to a neutral country. There is a strong possibility of her going to London.
Sheikh Hasina’s son and former official advisor Sajeeb Wazed Joy has said that she will not return to politics now. She has left the country for her safety on the appeal of her family. Joy said that his mother is disappointed that despite her hard work and transformation of Bangladesh, minorities have risen against her.
Question-2: Will India give asylum to Sheikh Hasina?
answer: Veena Sikri, former Indian ambassador to Bangladesh, says, “It is possible that Sheikh Hasina may not have sought asylum at all, she may have just used the route through India. Even if she seeks asylum, it is not necessary that she be granted asylum.”
Experts believe that there are three possible reasons for not giving asylum to Sheikh Hasina-
- The atmosphere in Bangladesh is not only against Sheikh Hasina, there are also anti-India sentiments there. Jamaat people are against Sheikh Hasina, her opposition parties are also unhappy with her relationship with India. In such a situation, giving asylum to Sheikh Hasina can lead to resentment against India in Bangladesh.
- India is a major power in the region, it has led forums like the G-20. Granting asylum to Sheikh Hasina can be seen as interference in a country’s internal affairs.
- The number of non-Muslim minorities in Bangladesh is only 8%. At present, people bent on violence in Bangladesh are getting support not only from opposition parties but also from Bangladesh Jamaat (religious fundamentalist community) and allegedly from Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI. If Sheikh Hasina is given asylum in India, the violent mob there can target these minorities.
Question-3: How have the relations been between PM Modi and Sheikh Hasina, will he help Sheikh Hasina?
answer: According to Harsh V Pant, an expert on foreign affairs and India’s foreign policy, it would not be wrong to call this period the golden period of India-Bangladesh relations. In the last ten years, the relations between Delhi and Dhaka have improved, many difficult situations also arose, but this relationship was not affected. PM Modi had to face opposition from the Bengal government on the Teesta water agreement, while Hasina had to face anti-India elements in Bangladesh. Despite this, both the leaders insisted on taking their partnership forward, which is important not only bilaterally but also in terms of diplomacy.
Sheikh Hasina was to be in China on a 4-day visit from 8 July 2024, but she returned to Bangladesh a day earlier. As soon as she arrived, she told reporters, ‘Both India and China were interested in the Teesta River project, but I want India to complete this project.’
India has not made any official comment on the violence that has been going on in Bangladesh since last month. Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal had said about the protests that it is Bangladesh’s internal matter. Veena Sikri says, ‘India and Bangladesh are neighboring countries. There is a land border of more than 4,000 kilometers. India will not get involved much in the matter of Bangladesh. The first priority for India is the security of its borders.
Question-4: Who will take power in Bangladesh now after Sheikh Hasina leaves the country?
answer: In the current situation, there are two ways in which a government can be formed in Bangladesh. One is the traditional way and the other is a caretaker government.
Traditional way: Chief Justice can become PM
Bangladesh’s tradition says that whenever such a situation arises, the Chief Justice of the country is given the responsibility of running the country. In 1990, a mass movement arose against the former military dictator of Bangladesh, Ershad. Then the opposition political parties handed over power to the then Chief Justice Ahmed on 6 December 1990. He became the head of the government as the acting President of Bangladesh.
Currently, Bangladesh already has a President. In such a situation, through the army, Bangladesh President Mohammad Shahabuddin can choose 65-year-old Chief Justice Obaidul Hasan as the head of the government. He has been made the Chief Justice on 12 September 2023. Obaidul Hasan can form an interim government by taking all the opposition parties together. There is also a speculation that this government may not have any political party but may consist of retired bureaucrats, judges, academicians and social workers of Bangladesh.
The second way: Caretaker government
Bangladesh also has the concept of a non-political caretaker government. In 1996 and 2008, when the elected government in Bangladesh completed its term, power was handed over to the caretaker governments. No member of the caretaker government (CTG) belongs to any political party. They are also not allowed to contest elections. People in the caretaker government work like ministers, they are called advisors. This government reports to the President.
This government has to conduct elections within 90 days and hand over power to the winning party within 120 days.
In Bangladesh, it was abolished by the 14th constitutional amendment, but the Supreme Court overturned the government’s decision and reinstated it. Therefore, the Army Chief can form the government by choosing any of these two methods without any risk.
Question-5: Who are the 3 people currently being considered for the post of PM of Bangladesh?
answer: Bangladesh Army Chief Waqar-uz-Zaman can hand over the command of the country to a non-political person through the President. Many names are being considered for the post of PM, but the names of 3 people are prominent.
- Salauddin Ahmed: He is an economist. He has been the governor of the Reserve Bank of Bangladesh. Salauddin’s name is being counted above because the country’s economic condition is not good at the moment. In such a situation, a leader is needed who can improve the country and the economy. Salauddin fits perfectly in this frame.
- Major General AKM Nazmul Hasan: He is the former Director General (DG) of Border Guards Bangladesh. Nazmul retired on 30 January this year. He has also been the Director of Army Intelligence. He is capable of making strategies to deal with the chaotic conditions prevailing in the country right now. He was the one who dealt with the Chittagong conflict in 1990.
- Dr. Manzoor Ahmed Chowdhury: Manzoor Ahmed Chowdhury is a scientist. He has been the former chairman of the National River Conservation Commission. He has also been a scientist in the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission. He has also been a critic of politicians. Chowdhury had openly criticized Bangladesh Education Minister and MP Dipu Moni for removing a researcher from a district. He had talked about sending North Dhaka Mayor Atiqul Islam to jail for failing to conserve the river.
Question-6: What will Sheikh Hasina’s biggest opponent, former PM Khaleda Zia do?
answer: Khaleda Zia is the head of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the biggest opposition party to Sheikh Hasina. She has been the 9th Prime Minister of Bangladesh. Khaleda Zia is currently serving a life sentence in a corruption case. She is also ill.
After Sheikh Hasina left Bangladesh, President Mohammad Shahabuddin ordered the release of Begum Khaleda Zia from jail in his very first meeting. This means that she may play a big role in Bangladesh politics in the coming days. Her son Tahir Rahman is also accused of corruption, he is currently in London.
Question-7: When will the violent movement in Bangladesh stop?
answer: It is being said that the public anger will subside if Sheikh Hasina flees the country. Although this movement is being called a student movement, the political conditions of Bangladesh are in its background. The fundamentalist group and opposition parties of Bangladesh are fuelling this movement, so until an interim government is formed and a decision is taken on the issue of reservation, the people protesting on the streets in Bangladesh are not going to go home.
Question-8: What is the situation in the border areas of India adjoining Bangladesh?
answer: Compared to all the neighbouring countries like China, Pakistan, India has the longest land border with Bangladesh. In the east, 5 states of India – Assam, West Bengal, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Tripura share the border with Bangladesh. West Bengal shares a 2217 km long border with Bangladesh.
There is an atmosphere of violence, arson and political instability in Bangladesh. The responsibility of protecting the eastern border of the country is primarily of the BSF. Recently, when a violent movement started in Bangladesh, the leaves of BSF soldiers were cancelled. Currently, keeping in mind the security on the border, the BSF has issued a high alert for all units.
Many senior officers including BSF’s acting DG Daljit Chaudhary have reached Kolkata. Soldiers have been ordered to monitor the border 24 hours a day. Earlier, India had issued an advisory to its citizens not to visit Bangladesh.
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