तेजस्वी ने अपने बड़े भाई तेज प्रताप यादव के खिलाफ महुआ सीट पर रचा चक्रव्‍यूह

Mahua assembly seat of Vaishali district has become hot this time in the politics of Bihar. This time in the assembly elections, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s elder son Tej Pratap Yadav has once again contested from here. Tej Pratap, who started his political journey from this seat in 2015, is now contesting the elections under the banner of his new party Janashakti Janata Dal (JJD). The way Tej Pratap Yadav did not have any family member with him on the day of filing his nomination, it is clear that Tejashwi Yadav does not want to let him win this seat at any cost. But taking Tej Pratap Yadav lightly will also prove to be a political mistake. He has the humor of his father Lalu Prasad which makes him popular in the era of social media.

Gradually, with his style, he is converting even his opponents into his supporters. After being out of the house, he has controlled his tongue. He is saying something in a very balanced and thoughtful manner. Obviously all this is bound to have an impact. this seat RJD He has been a traditional stronghold of Lalu, but common people do not consider him outside the Lalu family.

If Tej Pratap cashes in on this feeling, then it is obvious that it can emerge as a big problem for Tejashwi. At present, like other assembly seats of Bihar, the equation of victory and defeat here also depends on the issues of Yadav vote bank, role of Dalit community, Muslim support and development.

Mahua seat is RJD’s fort

Mahua assembly seat came into existence after the delimitation of 2008, but its political history is deeply linked to Lalu Yadav’s social justice politics. RJD had a strong hold here in the elections of 2000 and 2005, when Lalu’s popularity was at its peak. In 2010, Ravindra Rai of Janata Dal United (JDU) won by a margin of 21,925 votes, which was proof of the NDA wave. but in 2015 Tej Pratap Yadav RJD flag was again hoisted on the seat by defeating Ravindra Rai of Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) by 28,155 votes (18.46% margin). He secured a total of 66,927 votes, which was about 43% of the total valid votes (1,54,435). This victory was a symbol of the wave of the Grand Alliance and the strength of the Yadav-Muslim alliance.

In 2020, Tej Pratap was shifted to Hasanpur (Samastipur), where he won by 21,139 votes. In Mahua, RJD’s Mukesh Kumar Roshan defeated JDU’s Aashma Parveen by 13,770 votes (8.08% margin). The total valid votes were 1,72,026, of which Roshan got 62,747 (36.48%). LJP’s Sanjay Kumar Singh stood third. This election was fought under the shadow of Covid.

There is a direct contest here between JJD’s Tej Pratap, RJD’s Mukesh Roshan (close to Tejashwi), NDA’s LJP’s Sanjay Kumar Singh (Ram Vilas) and Jan Suraj Party’s Inderjit Pradhan. The total voters are 2,86,501, of which 21.17% are Dalits, 15.10% are Muslims and the rest are Yadav (about 25-30%), Koeri-Kurmi (20%) and Other Backward Classes (OBC). Young voters (18-30 years) are in majority, who are sensitive on development and employment issues.

On what basis is Tej Pratap’s fight looking sour?

1- Division of Yadav votes and strong lobby of NDA

The biggest danger of Tej Pratap’s defeat is the division of votes. With the support of RJD’s Mukesh Roshan Tejashwi, Yadav can take a major share of votes (50-60%). In 2020, Roshan focused on local issues (like roads, electricity) that impact rural voters. Tej Pratap’s expulsion from RJD (due to social media post in May 2025) has brought the family rift in front of the world. Blind followers of Lalu family say that Tejashwi’s close aide Roshan will defeat Tej Pratap in the house itself. The reason for this is that many people believe that Tej Pratap is becoming a thorn in the way of Tejashwi becoming the Chief Minister. If Yadav votes are divided 50-50, then Tej Pratap’s score may be less than 50,000.

NDA’s Sanjay Kumar Singh (LJP) is succeeding in uniting Dalit votes (21%) and Paswan community. In 2024 Lok Sabha, Chirag Paswan won Hajipur (in which Mahua falls) by 1.7 lakh votes, which shows the strength of NDA. The organization of JDU-BJP is strong, and it is certain for Sanjay Kumar to benefit from the Modi wave. Indrajit Pradhan of Jan Suraj is trying to capitalize on youth dissatisfaction (employment, education).

Tej Pratap’s image is a problem. His controversial statements (like ‘better death than returning to RJD’) and rumors of past marriages may turn away some voters. If Tejashwi’s supporters can get him thrown out of the house by calling him ‘unstable’ then what can the common people say? If the voting percentage remains 60% (like 2020), then NDA may benefit from low voter turnout.

2-Caste and social equation

If 80% Dalits go to NDA and Yadavs are divided, then Tej Pratap can remain at third position. Like the entire country, here too the key to victory and defeat lies in the caste equation of Mahua. Yadav (25-30%) is Tej Pratap’s core vote bank, but division with Roshan is certain. Muslims (15%) towards RJD, but Tej Pratap’s ‘Lalu’s son’ tag can pull 30-40%. Dalits (21%, mainly Paswan) are the LJP’s stronghold; He has strengthened NDA in 2010 and 2020. OBCs (Koeri-Kurmi, 20%) lean towards JDU. Women (48% voters) will vote on development promises, where Tej Pratap’s medical college is a plus point.

What is Tej Pratap hopeful about:

1-Family heritage and local appeal

Tej Pratap’s victory equation hinges on his 2015 success, but now it is more complex. The biggest plus point is the legacy of Lalu family. Lalu’s name is still unifying the Yadav community (which constitutes 25-30% of the total votes) in Mahua. In 2015, Tej Pratap had secured more than 80% share of this vote bank. Recent surveys and social media trends (like #TejPratapYadav on A user says that even though Tej Pratap is out of RJD, he is Lalu’s son. Yadav votes will be divided, but mostly will go in his favor.

According to Wikipedia, Mukesh Roshan also comes from Yadav community. Secondly, Tejashwi has also given him ticket from Mahua again. Obviously Yadav will be divided. But the way Tej Pratap is playing the victim card, it seems clear that the rain of Yadav votes will be for Tej Pratap only. Because NDA also considers Tejashwi responsible for the disintegration in Lalu family. If Tej Pratap gets the internal support of Rohini Acharya, then it is obvious that Yadav voters will outright vote for the eldest son of Lalu family.

2- Medical College in Mahua

The medical college being built in Mahua can also be responsible for creating an environment for Tej Pratap’s victory. During 2015-2020, when Tej Pratap was the Health Minister, the work of Medical College (costing Rs 465 crore) was started in Mahua. Whose work is slowly nearing completion. This is a big issue for rural areas. Now he is making grand promises like engineering college and cricket stadium (in which India-Pakistan match is promised). These promises can attract youth, especially when the unemployment rate is above 15%.

Tej Pratap’s supporters are saying on social media, the credit for the medical college goes to Tej Pratap; Roshan did nothing. Along with this, Tej Pratap’s simple campaigning style like plowing the fields by driving a tractor is being liked by the rural voters.

If Yadav votes get 70% and Muslims get 40%, then Tej Pratap can cross 70,000-80,000 votes, which is more than Roshan’s 62,747 in 2020. His party has fielded candidates on 22 seats, which may increase its statewide appeal. If a hung assembly is formed in Bihar and Tej Pratap wins even 2 seats, then he can bargain and get a good position.

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