West Bengal Assembly elections are now just a few months away. 2026 is knocking and after the victory in Bihar with the help of Nitish Kumar, BJP is flaunting like a peacock. The party is confident that this time it will break the fort of Trinamool Congress (TMC) by ousting Mamata Banerjee from power.
Narendra Modi has said that just as Ganga leaves Bihar and enters Bengal, BJP’s Vijay Yatra will also follow Ganga and wash away ‘Didi’. The figure of speech has been used very well but the reality is not so simple. The political ground is much harsher than this.
Agreed, BJP knows how to fight elections very well – power, money, organization… it uses everything as if it is an army on steroids. But is the matter really that simple? The Ganga becomes deeper as it progresses, and its current is much stronger than the water seen on the surface.
Geography of Bengal with a political twist
First, let’s take a look at its geography, with a political twist – when the Ganga leaves Bihar and enters Bengal, it first touches Jharkhand – the same state where the BJP tried hard to form the government, but could not wrest power from Hemant Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).
If you do not consider this as a minor slap, then remember that once it enters Bengal, Ganga ceases to be Ganga. She disguises herself as Padma and goes to Bangladesh. After this, the remaining weak stream of Bhagirathi meets Phadakka Dam and further becomes Hooghly. This is the ‘Googly’ which BJP is not able to play. From 2021 Assembly to 2024 Lok Sabha and the latest by-election, clean bowled in every match. Bengal is a different pitch – sticky and spinning.
Now coming to demography i.e. mathematics which is the second blow for BJP. west bengal The Muslim population in India is about 30%. There are at least 100 seats where the Muslim vote decides who will win and this vote has stood behind TMC more strongly than before.
BJP is not considered a ‘friendly’ party of Muslims and some of its leaders have been continuously worsening the atmosphere. The majority of the population may like things like CAA, NRC, Waqf Bill, UCC, but for Muslims all these are ‘anti-Muslim’ signs. On top of that, SIR i.e. Special Intensive Revision has further increased the fear in the border areas.
Image of Mamta Maa Durga vs Demons of Delhi
Mamata Banerjee She presents herself as Mother Durga who protects her children from the demons of Delhi. Even if there is religious polarization, BJP gets only residual votes here. The Bhadralok Hindus of Bengal, the educated class, the leftist leaning class, hate BJP more than the traffic jam of Kolkata. Many people no longer even live in Bengal, but cast their votes on WhatsApp from Delhi-Bangalore.
After this, what is left for BJP? Dalits, backward classes, tribals, those classes whom the party repeatedly claims to support but is unable to maintain a lasting hold on them. And even where she cooks, she doesn’t stay there for long.
Mathematics says that BJP will have to win about 150 seats out of 294 to get majority. This is very difficult because almost 100 Muslim dominated seats would have already been lost. That means now the fight is to win 150 seats out of 194 seats – this strike rate is like a dream in front of which the wall of TMC booth dadas is standing. Good luck!
Opposition and opposition, both are Mamata Banerjee herself
Then comes Mamata Banerjee herself. Even after being in power for 14 years, Mamata has not presented herself as an established leader but even today she shows herself as a permanent opposition.
Mamata is the Chief Minister of Bengal, but her behavior is as if she is fighting a battle with the Central Government every day, as if she is the real opposition. His angry attitude in the state gives people a feeling of opposition.
She is seen fighting continuously, whether it is the stalled funds of MGNREGA or the money of PM Awas Yojana, she always blames it all on ‘vindictive Modi-Shah’.
Voters get confused as to who is their real ruler? Delhi or Didi? This emotional conflict works like magic for Mamata Banerjee.
Mamta stands against the ‘outsiders’ of Delhi
She is the lioness of Bengal, the brave woman… who stands against the ‘outsiders with bad Hindutva’ who have come from Delhi. Bengali identity is an overdose of sub-nationalism.
West Bengal professor and activist Garg Chatterjee says that ‘outsiders’ are imposing Hindi-Hindu-Hindustan on Bengalis. Many people may not like these words of his, but the Bhadralok (i.e. mostly upper caste Brahmins-Kayasthas) are slowly spreading them.
BJP gets the label of being a North Indian or Gujarati party. At the same time, Didi recites mantras in temples, plays soft Hindutva, and also pretends to offer Namaz by tucking her saree behind her ears to look like a hijab. And his acting seems more real than real.
All this happens in a state which ousted the Left which was in power for 34 years but still prefers rebellion.
Old system continues under new flag in West Bengal
This is where the question of saree with red border or rather big bindi comes in. At the organizational level, TMC is actually the same old communist ghost that never went away. Pada-Adda-Dada system i.e. hold in local areas, ground influence and muscle power – this was perfected by CPM for decades. Trinamool has adopted the same system by simply changing the flag. Why fix something that isn’t broken?
BJP leaders cannot campaign in rural areas without security and in cities their condition is like a fish out of the Ganges, struggling without water.
TMC has an army of booth agents. On the other side is BJP, the same party which coined the concept of ‘Panna Pramukh’ and gave slogans like ‘My booth is the strongest’ – it does not last anywhere in Bengal. Lack of leaders, internal fighting, half-baked membership campaigns are the problems of BJP in Bengal.
He tried to integrate TMC leaders into the party, he came with great arrogance but when Didi turned a deaf ear, more than half of them returned home. His image was completely appreciated! Now they are hunting at the grassroots level but the BJP unit of West Bengal itself is a mess. Old BJP leaders doubt the new people and the cadre does not trust Delhi.
No one can stand before Didi’s charismatic street-fighter image. She dances in rallies, cries for Bengal, lives in a simple house.
Mamta government and her ‘revadis’
And now comes the ultimate weapon of the recent elections: the Revadis, whom the Prime Minister had once mocked with all seriousness. Everyone knows what role schemes like Jeevika Didi played in NDA’s massive victory in Bihar. Mamta Banerjee also has her beloved sister. Lakshmi Bhandar Yojana deposits Rs 1,000–1,200 directly into the accounts of women every month. This money balances the story of every scam, every corruption allegation, every post-panchayat election violence.
BJP trumpets its development model, but when central funds are ‘blocked’ (read this – stopped due to misuse) then their narrative falls flat. TMC immediately becomes the victim and claims that poor Bengal is being harassed by rich Delhi.
This is the beauty of Mamata Banerjee. She always emerges as the victimized heroine of ‘Zalim Delhi’ and ‘Modi-Shah’. A lone warrior, who is saving Bengali identity from Hindutva.
TMC defeats ‘outsider’ BJP with their own weapon
After winning Bihar, Modi ji says- Bengal is next. And TMC immediately says – Bahiragoto! (external). Absolutely. It happens that a BJP leader will make a wrong reference to Tagore, someone will object to non-veg stalls in puja pandals, someone will give a statement about eating fish on Ekadashi. These small ‘slips’ will echo in TMC’s eco system as if BJP is coming to impose restrictions on food and drink in Bengal.
Old videos will be re-circulated, local people will again be reminded that the food habits of BJP are different from those of Bengalis. Expect these clips to go viral again.
All TMC leaders, whether small or big, will speak typical street Bengali in every public meeting. Whereas BJP’s star campaigners will address Bengalis in their Sangh-Shakha level Hindi and this in itself is a huge loss. This gap will be clearly visible, and TMC will take full advantage of it.
Trinamool RJD Not there…
Ganga may be flowing, but in Bengal its flow is controlled by Didi, at Farakka Dam. BJP may dream that lotus will bloom in the ponds amidst the paddy fields, but Trinamool is not RJD.
Congress was neither there then, nor is it anywhere now.
Unless Amit Shah learns some magic like pulling out a rabbit from his hat, Bengal remains invincible. Overall, the whole matter is like a mess.
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