Tel Aviv/Tehran/Washington DC19 minutes ago
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Inset- Picture of Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
It has been two months since the war against Iran started, but no clear end is yet in sight. US President Donald Trump had called it a short and decisive battle, but now the situation seems to be the opposite. The war may have stopped, but it has not ended.
According to the IMF, before the war it was expected that global inflation would decline from 4.1% to 3.8% this year. But now the reverse has happened, inflation is expected to reach 4.4%.
Common people are paying the biggest price of this war. According to Iranian human rights organizations, more than 3,600 people have died so far, including more than 1,700 civilians.
Harvard economist Linda Bilmes estimates that the total cost of this war has reached $1 trillion. This means that inflationary pressure is certain to increase further across the world.
Picture of the attack on the American military base during the war in Bahrain.
Expert- There is no real winner in this war
US President Donald Trump has said many times that America has won this war in many ways. Melanie Sisson, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, told CNN that there is no real winner in this war.
America has also not got any major strategic advantage. At the same time, this conflict is no longer limited and its impact is visible on the whole world. Common people have suffered the most loss. From Iran, Lebanon and Gulf countries to America and people all over the world are paying the price.
Additionally, the Iranian government has also increased its strictness on internal opposition. More than 600 people have been hanged since the beginning of the year. Internet has been closed in the country for eight weeks and the economy has also been badly affected.
Government’s strictness on common people in Iran
The people of Iran are facing attacks from outside as well as pressure from within the country. America and Israel have attacked thousands of places in Iran, some of which also targeted civilian infrastructure (such as electricity, water, etc.).
Under the leadership of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the government appears to be stricter than before and is giving the message of crushing any opposition. Earlier, thousands of people were killed during the protests in December and January.
Besides, the country’s economy has also been badly affected. Due to which jobs are being lost and poverty is increasing.
Huge devastation in Lebanon too
The people of Lebanon have been trapped in the ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel for several decades. A fragile ceasefire remained in place until February, but the situation deteriorated when Israel assassinated Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. After this Hezbollah started attacks on Israel.
In response, Israel launched a massive airstrike and ground operation on Lebanon, the purpose of which was said to be to eliminate Hezbollah. According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, more than 2500 people have been killed in these attacks since March 2.
Satellite images have revealed that Israel is adopting the same strategy which it had earlier adopted in Gaza. That means destroying entire villages.
The situation is so bad that about 6 lakh people from southern Lebanon have been forced to leave their homes. Israel has clearly said that until the threat to Northern Israel from Hezbollah is eliminated, these people will not be allowed to return home.
After the Israeli attack, people’s houses were destroyed in Lebanon’s capital Beirut.
Impact on the economy of Gulf countries
Many Gulf countries have also fallen prey to this war. UAE has been affected the most. Here Iran carried out maximum missile and drone attacks. Although most of the attacks were stopped, the damage has been huge and has dealt a blow to the UAE’s image as a major business and tourism hub.
At the same time, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has had a negative impact on the economy of Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait. These countries depend on this route for the supply of their oil, gas and other goods.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also reduced the economic growth estimates of these countries and has believed that the economies of Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait may shrink this year.
Inflation in America, impact on common Americans
The impact of this war is clearly visible on the pockets of common Americans. Petrol, air tickets and many services have become expensive as companies are now adding fuel surcharge to the prices. Inflation has increased from 2.4% in February to 3.3% in March, and consumer confidence is falling rapidly.
According to the Brookings Institute, America’s economy is largely dependent on oil. At the same time, investment in renewable energy (like solar, wind) is still low and this is now becoming a weakness.
Inflation rate in America has increased to 3.3%.
China and Russia benefit from this war
China appears to be in a relatively strong position in this war. China had already accumulated oil reserves and was also paying attention to alternative energy several decades ago. Also, America has got diplomatic benefits due to the weakening of its image.
Chinese oil and gas companies are also making profits. According to CNN, 6 big companies can earn a profit of up to $94 billion this year.
Apart from this, Russia’s economy seems to be benefiting from this war. Russia’s earnings have increased due to high prices of oil and fertilizers. Also, when oil prices were rising rapidly, America relaxed the restrictions on Russian oil present in the sea for some time, so that the supply could increase, this further benefited Russia.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia’s energy earnings almost doubled to $ 19 billion in March, which was $ 9.75 billion in February.
China has also worked rapidly on other methods of generating electricity, such as solar energy, wind energy and water energy.
Global growth rate decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%
The impact of this war is now visible on the pockets of common people all over the world. IMF has also reduced global growth estimates. Now this year the world economy is expected to grow at the rate of 3.1%, whereas in January the estimate was 3.3%.
There has also been a sharp increase in the prices of fertilizers. In countries where people are more dependent on agriculture and spend a large part of their income on food, they are directly and more directly affected by this inflation.
Trump’s popularity falls on war situation
This war was a big bet for Donald Trump. He had promised to end it soon, but till now neither Iran has bowed down nor the war has ended. CNN’s poll revealed that his popularity has also dropped to 37%.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initially got a strategic advantage, but now people there also believe that victory in the war is not clear.
Iran’s regime has also suffered losses, but the new leadership looks more aggressive. Also, by showing control over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has shown its ability to exert global pressure.
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