Last Updated:
As per analysts, even if Washington and Tehran reach an agreement and maritime traffic resumes normally, the structural damage caused by the conflict could take years to reverse.
On Tuesday, Brent crude was trading around $96.50 per barrel, extending gains as concerns over long-term supply disruptions continued to dominate markets. (AI-generated photo)
If you were expecting Brent oil prices to crash back to pre-war levels immediately after a possible US-Iran peace deal, analysts say the reality could be far more complicated — and far more expensive.
Even as negotiations continue over ending the two-month-long West Asia conflict, energy experts warn that the global oil market may take years, not months, to fully recover from the geopolitical shock triggered by the war.
Appearing on CNN’s The Situation Room on Tuesday, senior business reporter David Goldman painted a bleak picture for the future of global energy markets. Pointing directly to a chart tracking multi-year Brent oil futures, Goldman warned that it will take a “huge amount of time” for crude to shed its geopolitical risk premium and return to the stable levels enjoyed before the outbreak of hostilities.
“You want $3 gas again? You’re going to have to wait maybe six years,” Goldman said. “If Americans want $3 gas, they are going to have to wait until 2032 to see that sub-$70 oil level again.”
“If you want $3 gas, you’re going to have to wait 6 years. We will not get back down to that sub-$70 oil level until 2032″ pic.twitter.com/CM2AD5IsNo— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) May 26, 2026
How The West Asia Conflict Changed The Oil Market
The current oil shock traces back to late February, just before the joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran began. On February 27, 2026 — the final trading session before the launch of what later became known as “Operation Epic Fury” — Brent crude was trading at a relatively stable $72.48 per barrel, with some regional benchmarks even hovering near $67.
That stability disappeared almost overnight.
The military escalation, combined with fears over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes — triggered panic across global energy markets. Since then, maritime insecurity in the Persian Gulf, shipping bottlenecks and supply fears have pushed crude prices sharply higher.
On Tuesday, Brent crude was trading around $96.50 per barrel, extending gains as concerns over long-term supply disruptions continued to dominate markets.
Why Oil Prices May Stay Elevated
According to analysts, even if Washington and Tehran reach a breakthrough agreement and maritime traffic resumes normally, the structural damage caused by the conflict could take years to reverse.
JPMorgan Chase expects Brent crude to average $104 per barrel in the third quarter and around $98 in the fourth quarter this year, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, said the immediate logistical crisis may ease relatively quickly after a ceasefire. According to Book, de-mining the Strait of Hormuz, evacuating stranded ships and restarting suspended oil production could happen within weeks or months of a deal. However, he warned that restoring damaged infrastructure, rebuilding inventories and stabilising long-term supply chains would likely take much longer.
“I don’t think anybody is expecting to return to averaging $60-a-barrel oil anytime soon,” Book told CNN. “It will take a while for supply to come back on stream.”
Strait Of Hormuz Remains Key
Much of the recovery now depends on how quickly tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz can return to pre-war levels. The waterway handles a significant share of the world’s crude exports, making it central to both global energy security and inflation trends worldwide.
Last week, Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, warned that even if hostilities ended immediately, it would still take at least four months to restore flows through the strait to just 80% of pre-conflict levels.
A full return to normal shipping activity, he said, is unlikely before the first half of 2027. For consumers already struggling with inflation and elevated fuel costs, the message from analysts is increasingly clear: even if diplomacy succeeds in ending the conflict, the economic aftershocks of the West Asia war may continue shaping oil markets for years.
Washington D.C., United States of America (USA)
Read More
Source link
[ad_3]
