India is witnessing one of its driest starts to June in decades, with rainfall running nearly 46% below normal between June 4 and June 20. As the southwest monsoon struggles to advance, attention is turning to the emergence of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean—a climate phenomenon historically linked to weaker monsoons in India. While meteorologists say El Niño may be influencing global weather patterns, other factors, including weak moisture-laden winds and the absence of favourable weather systems, have also contributed to the delay. With the monsoon now resuming its advance into Maharashtra, the key question remains: Is India facing a temporary pause in rainfall, or the early signs of a stronger El Niño impact on agriculture, water supplies and the broader economy?
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