The Tamil Nadu Public Service Commission (TNPSC) conducted the Group 4 examination on July 12, to fill 3,935 posts across various categories, including Village Administrative Officer, Junior Assistant, and Typist. (News18 Tamil)
The TNPSC Group 4 is an important exam in Tamil Nadu and the competition was intense as of the 13.89 lakh applicants, 11.48 lakh appeared for the exam, meaning around 287 candidates vied for each post. The overall success rate was less than 0.35%, or roughly 3.5 selections for every 1,000 candidates. (News18 Tamil)
This year’s Group 4 exam has been described as one of the toughest in recent memory. According to candidates and invigilators, more than half of the 100 Tamil questions were unusually complex and outside the standard syllabus.(News18 Tamil)
The selection process is based solely on a single written stage comprising 200 questions, with no negative marking for incorrect answers. This format means that luck often plays a significant role in determining the final outcome. (News18 Tamil)
For instance, one candidate might answer 150-160 questions correctly and guess the rest, while another might correctly answer only 50–-0 and rely heavily on guesswork, in some cases, by choosing the same option for all unknown questions. While the difference between candidates scoring 50 and 170 is obvious, distinguishing between those scoring 170 and 170.01 is almost impossible. (News18 Tamil)
Kunal Mangal, a Harvard PhD holder, has extensively studied TNPSC competitive exams. His research examined why so many young people continue to pursue government jobs in a privatised, globalised economy, whether such exams can reliably identify the most suitable candidates, and how much of the outcome depends on luck. (News18 Tamil)
His findings suggest that score variations in the Group 4 exam cannot be explained without factoring in luck. In 2013, luck accounted for 12% of score variation; this fell to 9.5% in 2017 and 7% in 2019. However, the impact was not uniform, in 2019, candidates in the 95th percentile near the cut-off were affected entirely by luck, while those in the 50-60 percentile saw no such influence. (News18 Tamil)
Luck appears to matter most for well-prepared candidates who answer nearly all questions correctly. For these candidates, scoring in the 160-170 range could mean the difference between selection and rejection. Those who put in little preparation or rely solely on random guessing are far less likely to benefit. (News18 Tamil)
Overall, out of the nearly 15 lakh candidates, an estimated 10,000-20,000 may be depending on the unpredictable factor of luck to secure a place in the TNPSC Group 4 selection list. (News18 Tamil)
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