If 2026 has already felt like a year of weather extremes, the outlook for 2027 offers little comfort.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that the The Boy over the tropical Pacific is expected to strengthen into a very strong event and persist all the way through February 2027.
The agency puts the likelihood of El Nino continuing into February at nearly 100%, its most unequivocal forecast yet.
It’s something the world is now paying attention to because El Nino can disturb rainfall and temperature patterns across the globe and do so effortlessly.
And with the planet already experiencing exceptionally warm oceans and a changing climate, the effects of El Nino could add another layer of stress.
EXTREME WEATHER TO STAY
El Nino is a natural climate pattern in which unusually warm waters develop across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
This warming changes atmospheric circulation, which can shift where rain falls and where heat builds up thousands of kilometres away.
It’s therefore a worrying issue that the current event is already strengthening.
WMO has said that exceptionally warm Pacific waters are expected to push it towards very strong intensity, with the peak likely towards the end of 2026.
The El Nino’s climate effects, however, are expected to continue into 2027.
That could mean a greater risk of extreme heat, drought and flooding in different parts of the world. Although, one should keep in mind that El Nino does not mean every country will become hotter or drier, as the effects vary according to the region.
WHY WILL 2027 FACE EXTREME WEATHER?
There is another reason to watch 2027 closely.
WMO’s latest longer-range assessment has said that global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels over the next five years.
The organisation has given an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will be warmer than the current record-holder, 2024.
The report specifically noted that El Nino expected towards the end of 2026, increases the chances of 2027 becoming that record-breaking year.
So, 2027 is not being forecast as universally “worse” than 2026. Rather, the concern is that an already warmer planet could collide with a powerful El Nino, increasing the odds of another year marked by exceptional heat and disruptive rainfall.
HOW WILL EN NINO AFFECT INDIA?
For India, the biggest concern is rainfall.
El Nino has historically often been associated with weaker southwest monsoon rainfall, although it does not determine India’s monsoon on its own.
India’s 2026 monsoon has already struggledwith the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting seasonal rainfall at 90% of the long-period average, while August ended with a 16% rainfall deficit.
If El Nino remains active into early 2027, its influence could continue to affect temperature and rainfall patterns, raising concerns over water availability, agriculture and heat.
The warning, therefore, is not that every extreme event in 2027 will be caused by El Nino. Rather, it’s that the planet is set to enter another year while carrying a certain level of instability sitting atop an already warming planet.
– Ends
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