“If you want to change the government, don’t look for a leader. Become the leader,” actor Vijay says in his 2018 superhit movie ‘Sarkar’. Eight years later, politician Vijay eventually became the leader and formed his sarkar (government) last week. For it, Vijay had to depend on the last-minute support of the allies of the DMK – the very party he had labelled his “political enemy”. In essence, with such a fragile majority in the Tamil Nadu assembly, the survival of Vijay sarkar may depend on the pleasure of Stalin. But Vijay may take comfort from the rumblings in the AIADMK after a faction extended support to his TVK.
The fast-paced developments in Tamil Nadu have raised a major question. Can Vijay’s government remain stable for five years? The answer to it lies in how he cobbled together the slim majority. Vijay’s TVK now has the support of 120 MLAs in the assembly – just above the 118 majority mark.
VIJAY’S FRAGILE MAJORITY
Crucially, the TVK, with 107 MLAs, depends on the crutches of the Congress (5 MLAs), VCK (2), IUML (2) and the Left (4). Except for the Congress, which severed its ties with the DMK, the others still swear allegiance to Stalin.
Interestingly, the VCK, IUML, and the Left have all extended outside support to the TVK. The Left parties even went as far as saying that they would continue to work with Stalin’s DMK to safeguard Tamil Nadu’s interests.
Essentially, Vijay’s TVK can truly count upon the support of the five Congress MLAs. That leaves it assured of just 112 MLAs.
This justifies the argument that Stalin holds the key to a stable TVK government, as the VCK, IUML, and the Left parties have not ditched the DMK altogether.
“For now, Stalin remains indirectly in the driving seat because almost every party supporting Vijay’s TVK consists of his former allies. He effectively holds the remote control of the new government and would know exactly when to press the right buttons,” political commentator Arvind P tweeted.
While Vijay may be a newbie in politics, he is aware of the tightrope he needs to walk. It is probably why the first visit after his oath ceremony was to the residence of Stalin on Monday.
This was probably the first time in Tamil Nadu’s history that an incumbent called on the outgoing chief minister after assuming office. The move was seen as a testament to Vijay’s political maturity.
For now, Stalin will be watching and scrutinising each and every move of Vijay. The Jana Nayagan star has promised cash doles, made big claims on women’s safety and about running a corruption-free government. He also launched a sharp attack on the previous DMK regime over Tamil Nadu’s alleged Rs 10 lakh crore debt burden.
A shrewd politician that he is, Stalin knows very well that not letting Vijay form the government could have backfired. It is probably why the buzz of arch-rivals DMK and AIADMK coming together remained a buzz.
Such an alliance of convenience would have sent a wrong message to the cadres and the people of Tamil Nadu in general. It would have only generated a sympathy wave for Vijay and strengthened his hand in case of a re-election.
Moreover, the timing is crucial. A DMK-AIADMK government would have given a second wind to Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS), whose stock is already falling after the AIADMK’s poor returns. Stalin was well aware that it would be a matter of time before the AIADMK imploded.
AIADMK RIFT GIVES VIJAY BACKUP PLAN
And implode it did. On Tuesday, after days of speculation and resort politics, an AIADMK faction led by senior MLAs SP Velumani and Shanmugam announced support for the TVK government. The immediate trigger, Shanmugam said, was EPS attempting to align with the DMK.
It is believed that around 30 of the 47 AIADMK MLAs are aligned with the anti-EPS bloc.
“The mandate is for Vijay to become the Chief Minister. We extend our support to the TVK government,” Shanmugam said in an explosive media briefing.
However, Shanmugam underscored that he had no intention of splitting the AIADMK. He also asserted that it was no longer in alliance with the BJP.
“The AIADMK is not in an alliance with any party, and a new alliance must be formed. We are not part of any alliance except TVK,” Shanmugam said.
Now, with the support of this AIADMK faction, Vijay’s TVK has the backing of 150 MLAs in the assembly. The exact number, though, will be known during the floor test on Wednesday.
What must be noted here is that Shanmugam has said he won’t be splitting the AIADMK. A split would have then triggered the anti-defection law.
The Shanmugam faction needs the support of at least 32 MLAs to avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law.
The rift within the party was visible on Tuesday as AIADMK MLAs arrived in two separate camps for the assembly session.
Vijay, however, will not mind the developments in the AIADMK. It will serve as TVK’s backup in case Stalin decides to pull the strings in the government through DMK’s allies.
But Vijay surviving on the crutches of DMK’s allies and an AIADMK faction may not be good optics in the longer run. After all, he campaigned during the elections as a true third alternative to the Dravidian behemoths.
For now, the odds seem to be stacked against Vijay. But he does have a backup ready.
– Ends
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