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Trump faces mounting midterm challenges as inflation, the Iran war, low approval ratings and stronger Democratic enthusiasm threaten Republican control of Congress.
A file photo of Donald Trump (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are facing mounting political challenges ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, with rising living costs, declining approval ratings and signs of weakening voter enthusiasm threatening their control of Congress.
Recent polls published by NBC News, Fox News and The Washington Post, alongside reports by The Associated Press (AP) and Reuters, point to a difficult political environment for Republicans.
Voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the economy, a growing number blame Trump’s policies for higher prices, and Democrats have established leads in several national congressional voting preference polls, reports suggest.
The stakes are significant. According to Reuters, in the midterm elections, Republicans hold narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the House of Representatives and four seats to win the Senate.
While the polls do not guarantee a Republican defeat, several factors could make it difficult for Trump’s party to retain its congressional majorities.
LOW APPROVAL RATINGS COULD BECOME A LIABILITY
Trump’s declining approval ratings are among the clearest warning signs for Republicans.
At A Glance
Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 33%-36% across three polls, signalling growing voter dissatisfaction.
Inflation, rising living costs and the Iran war are emerging as key challenges for Republicans.
Democrats lead in congressional voting preference polls, raising the prospect of Republicans losing control of Congress.
An NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey found that 34 per cent of US adults approved of Trump’s performance, while 66 per cent disapproved. The survey also found that 51 per cent strongly disapproved of his performance, the highest share recorded during his second term in that poll.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey, reported by MS NOW, put his approval rating at 33 per cent, with 66 per cent disapproving. The report described the figure as an all-time low in that poll.
A Fox News survey recorded Trump’s approval rating at 36 per cent, the lowest level in its polling for either of his presidential terms.
Separately, a Pew Research Centre survey conducted from September 28 to October 4 found Trump’s approval rating at 30 per cent, with 68 per cent disapproving. Pew reported that 44 per cent of voters viewed their vote as a vote against Trump, compared with 19 per cent who viewed it as a vote in his favour.
Reuters, in its October 19 explainer on the midterms, also highlighted Trump’s low approval ratings as a potential obstacle for Republicans.
The political risk is that voters dissatisfied with the president could express that discontent by voting against Republican congressional candidates, even though Trump himself is not on the ballot.
COST OF LIVING AND INFLATION ARE HURTING THE GOP
The economy could prove to be Trump’s biggest vulnerability because lowering prices was a central promise of his 2024 presidential campaign.
An AP-NORC poll published in October found that only 17 per cent of US adults approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while 26 per cent approved of his handling of the economy overall.
The Associated Press reported that 65 per cent of adults blamed Trump’s policies for persistently high prices rather than factors outside his control.
The findings suggest that dissatisfaction over prices is not confined to Democratic voters.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll reported on October 9 found that 78 per cent of Americans blamed Trump’s policies for prices rising faster than their earnings. The figure included 64 per cent of Republicans and 76 per cent of independents, according to Reuters.
The same survey found that 57 per cent of Trump-supporting Republicans said costs were rising faster than their paychecks.
Reuters reported that tariffs and the war with Iran had become central to the debate over rising prices, with higher global energy costs adding to pressure on household budgets.
The NBC News poll also found that 44 per cent of respondents said their financial situation was worse than a year earlier, while 18 per cent said it had improved. The Fox News survey found that 74 per cent of voters rated the economy negatively and 55 per cent said inflation was not at all under control.
The political danger for Republicans is straightforward – voters who believe their financial circumstances have deteriorated may punish the party in power, particularly when the president’s promises on affordability remain a prominent part of the political debate.
THE IRAN WAR IS ADDING TO VOTER DISSATISFACTION
The conflict with Iran has emerged as another source of political pressure for Trump.
Reuters’ reporting on the Reuters/Ipsos poll linked dissatisfaction over the war to rising fuel prices and weakening support for the president’s economic performance. The news agency reported that the conflict had pushed gasoline and diesel prices higher, adding to the cost pressures facing households.
A report by AP on the AP-NORC survey also found concerns about Trump’s leadership on foreign policy, alongside widespread dissatisfaction with domestic economic conditions.
The AP report found that only 69 per cent of Republican voters supported Trump on foreign policy, with the war in Iran continuing despite earlier expectations about its duration.
The NBC News poll put Trump’s approval rating on his handling of the war with Iran at 29 per cent. The Fox News survey found that 64 per cent disapproved of his handling of foreign policy.
These findings suggest that the conflict could create a two-pronged political problem for Republicans – voters may object to the administration’s foreign policy while also feeling the consequences of higher energy prices at home.
However, the polls do not establish that the war alone will determine voting behaviour. Its potential electoral impact is intertwined with economic concerns and broader assessments of Trump’s leadership.
DEMOCRATS HAVE AN EDGE IN VOTING PREFERENCE POLLS
Democrats have recorded leads over Republicans in several national surveys measuring preferences for congressional candidates.
The NBC News Decision Desk Poll found that registered voters preferred Democrats to control Congress by 55 per cent to 45 per cent.
The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey, as reported by MS NOW, found that 52 per cent of likely voters would support a Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared with 44 per cent who would back a Republican.
A Fox News survey recorded a similar advantage for Democrats, who led Republicans by 54 per cent to 45 per cent among voters asked which candidate they would support if the election were held at the time of the poll.
Pew Research Centre’s October survey also found that Democratic voters were more engaged in the election campaign. According to Pew, Democratic supporters were 17 percentage points more likely than Republican supporters to say they were extremely motivated to vote.
REPUBLICANS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DISTANCING THEMSELVES FROM TRUMP
Another potential complication for the Republican Party is the challenge of defending its congressional candidates while managing Trump’s unpopularity.
A Reuters review published in October found that Republican candidates in 41 of 62 competitive congressional races had either broken with Trump on policy or played down their association with him.
Reuters reported that the candidates were largely distancing themselves on individual issues rather than rejecting Trump’s political agenda. The findings suggested that some Republicans were attempting to appeal to independent voters without alienating Trump’s supporters.
This creates a strategic dilemma. Candidates who closely associate themselves with the president risk inheriting his negative ratings among voters dissatisfied with his performance. Those who distance themselves from him could risk weakening their appeal among Republican voters who remain loyal to Trump.
The challenge is particularly relevant in competitive districts and Senate races, where relatively small shifts in support can determine the outcome.
SOME VOTERS WHO BACKED TRUMP ARE NOW DISAPPOINTED
The latest polling also points to vulnerabilities among groups that supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Reuters reported in October that Latino voters who shifted towards Trump in 2024 might be returning to Democrats amid frustration over the economy and some of the president’s immigration enforcement tactics.
The NBC News poll put Trump’s approval rating among Latino respondents at 31 per cent.
The Fox News survey found that 31 per cent of Hispanic voters preferred the Republican candidate in their congressional district, despite 43 per cent of Hispanic voters having supported Trump in the 2024 election, according to the report.
Separately, an AP-NORC/AAPI Data poll reported by AP found that roughly one-quarter of Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander adults approved of Trump’s overall performance, while only about two in 10 approved of his handling of the economy.
The poll, conducted from September 8 to 15, found that Democrats held advantages on issues including the economy and healthcare among these voters.
These findings do not mean that all voters in these groups will switch their support to Democrats. They do, however, indicate that Republicans may face difficulties retaining some of the coalition that helped Trump win the presidency.
REPUBLICANS FACE A DIFFICULT BALANCING ACT
The combination of economic dissatisfaction, weak approval ratings and Democratic enthusiasm places Republicans in a challenging position ahead of Election Day.
Reuters reported on October 17 that tensions were rising within Trump’s political operation as Republicans faced the possibility of losing control of Congress. The report described disagreements involving senior figures over campaign strategy, political spending and the handling of the party’s electoral prospects.
Trump has also made the midterms a referendum on his presidency, according to an AP report. The report mentioned that Democrats and their allies had spent more than $163 million on television advertising mentioning Trump since September 1, while Republican advertisements had mentioned him far less frequently.
The strategy allows Democrats to connect Republican candidates with the president’s record, particularly on tariffs, healthcare and the war with Iran. For Republicans, the challenge is to defend their record while persuading voters that they can address economic concerns.
However, Reuters also reported that Republicans retained advantages including stronger campaign spending and continued public scepticism towards Democrats. The agency also noted that concerns among moderate voters about some progressive candidates could limit Democratic gains.
The narrow Republican majorities mean that the outcome will depend heavily on individual races rather than national sentiment alone. Senate contests in particular are shaped by state-level political dynamics, while the House outcome will depend on a large number of district races.
The polling evidence therefore points to a difficult electoral environment for Trump and his party, rather than a certain defeat.
Quick Answers
Ask News18Recent national polls show Donald Trump’s approval ratings at historic lows for his presidency. Surveys indicate approval ranging from 30 per cent to 36 per cent, with disapproval reaching between 61 per cent and 68 per cent across multiple polls like NBC News, Fox News, and Pew Research.
Ask News18About the Author
Vani Mehrotra is the Deputy News Editor at News18.com. She has more than 10 years of experience in national and international news and has previously worked on multiple desks.
October 19, 2026, 15:49 IST
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