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The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is slated to release the Q1 FY27 GDP estimates at 4 pm on Monday.
India’s Q1 GDP Growth.
India’s economic growth data for the April-June 2026 quarter, or the first quarter of FY27, will be released today, August 31. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is slated to release the Q1 FY27 GDP estimates at 4 pm on Monday.
The GDP data will be closely watched by investors as it will give the first major reading of how the Indian economy performed during a quarter marked by geopolitical tensions, higher crude oil prices and global trade uncertainty.
What are economists expecting?
Economists broadly expect India’s GDP growth to remain above the 7 per cent mark. A Moneycontrol poll of 17 economists puts the median estimate at 7.3 per cent, with forecasts ranging from 6.6 per cent to 8 per cent. Reuters’ poll of 58 economists had a median estimate of 7.1 per cent.
This would mean some moderation from the 7.8 per cent growth recorded in the March 2026 quarter, but would still represent a strong pace of economic expansion.
The key question for markets will therefore not only be whether GDP crosses 7 per cent, but also how far the actual number is from expectations.
Domestic demand will be a key focus
One of the biggest things to watch will be private consumption and domestic demand. Economists expect household spending to have remained relatively strong during the quarter, supported by tax relief and resilient consumer activity. A strong consumption number would suggest that higher energy prices and global uncertainty have not yet had a major impact on household demand.
Govt spending and investment
Government capital expenditure is another important factor to watch. Strong spending on infrastructure and construction has been one of the major supports for growth. Investors will look at whether government-led investment has continued to offset relatively weaker private-sector investment. A strong investment number could provide confidence that the growth cycle is becoming broader rather than being driven mainly by consumption and government spending.
Manufacturing and services growth
The performance of manufacturing and services will also be important. Manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory during the quarter, although the preliminary manufacturing PMI for August fell to 52.9 from 53.5 in July.
Services activity has also remained supportive, with credit growth and other high-frequency indicators pointing to continued domestic economic activity. A strong performance in these sectors would strengthen the case for a resilient Q1 GDP number.
GVA could give a clearer picture
Markets will also track Gross Value Added, or GVA, along with the headline GDP number. GVA provides a better picture of underlying economic activity because it excludes the impact of net taxes.
Economists surveyed by Reuters had estimated GVA growth at around 7.2 per cent. If GDP growth is strong but GVA growth is significantly weaker, investors may look more closely at the quality and sustainability of the headline growth figure.
Crude oil remains a major risk
The GDP data comes at a time when crude oil prices remain a key concern for India. The country imports a large share of its crude requirements, so higher oil prices can increase input and transportation costs, put pressure on inflation and affect the rupee.
Investors will therefore look beyond the Q1 number and assess whether the economy can maintain its momentum if elevated energy prices persist.
Quick Answers
Ask News18Economists broadly expect India’s GDP growth to remain above the 7 per cent mark for the first quarter of FY27. Forecasts for this quarter range from 6.6 per cent to 8 per cent, with a median estimate of 7.3 per cent. This would represent a moderation from the 7.8 per cent growth recorded in the March 2026 quarter.
Ask News18About the Author
Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to personal finance, markets, economy and companies. Having over a decade of experience in financial journalis…Read More
August 31, 2026, 08:04 IST
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