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- India Economy To Surge Amidst Middle East Crisis; IMF Raises GDP Forecast
New Delhi32 minutes ago
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released new figures regarding India’s GDP growth. According to IMF, despite the ongoing tension in the Middle East, the Indian economy will grow faster than previously estimated.
The institution has increased India’s growth rate estimate to 6.5% for the financial year 2026-27. Earlier in its report released in January, IMF had estimated it to be 6.4%.
Estimates for FY 2027 increased by 0.1%
In its latest report released on Tuesday (April 14), the IMF said that India’s growth rate has been increased marginally by 0.1% for the financial year 2026-27. Two main reasons have been given behind this.
First – excellent performance of the Indian economy in the year 2025 and second – reducing the additional tariff on Indian goods by America from 50% to 10%.
The IMF believes that the impact of these two positive factors will far outweigh the damage caused by the Middle East crisis.
Difference between government estimates and IMF figures
There is a huge difference between the figures of the Government of India and the IMF. The Government of India estimates that the economy will grow at a pace of 7.6% in the financial year 2025-26.
This is 1% more than the old estimate of IMF. However, IMF has said that even in the year 2027, India’s growth rate may remain stable at the level of 6.5%.
Inflation may increase from 2.1% to 4.7%
IMF has also warned about inflation. According to the report, a sharp jump in the inflation rate may be seen in India. Where inflation is expected to be 2.1% in the financial year 2025-26.
Whereas in the financial year 2026-27, it may increase to 4.7%. However, it is a matter of relief that by the financial year 2027-28 it may come back closer to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) mid-point i.e. 4%.
Inflation will remain low in China, global growth will slow down
IMF says that inflation in China will start increasing from lower levels. At the same time, due to the decline in food prices in India during 2025, inflation will remain very low, but after this it will again move towards the target level.
The economic situation at the global level is not going to be very good. IMF has reduced the world’s overall growth rate estimate from 3.3% to 3.1%. The global economy had grown at the rate of 3.4% in the year 2025, which means now there are signs of slowing down.
Worst impact on Europe, America and China will be safe
The impact of the worldwide recession will be different on different countries…
- Europe: This area is going to be worst affected. Euro area growth may decline by 0.2%.
- Britain: A major cut of 0.5% has been made in the estimate of Britain’s economy.
- America and China: These two big powers will be safe from this slowdown to a great extent. Their growth rate estimate has been reduced by only 0.1%.
What is US tariff and why does India benefit?
- When America reduces tariffs on goods coming from a country, those goods become cheaper there. In the case of India, this duty has been reduced from 50% to 10%.
- With this, products like clothes, jewelery and IT services of Indian exporters will become cheaper in the American market, which will increase India’s earnings.
Read this news also…
Petrol may become costlier by ₹ 18 and diesel by ₹ 35: Prices may increase after elections in 5 states including Bengal, oil companies in loss.
Due to rising prices of crude oil, petrol may become costlier by ₹ 18 and diesel by ₹ 35 per liter. The report of foreign brokerage firm Macquarie states that despite crude oil being expensive, the prices of petrol and diesel in the country are stable. Companies are incurring losses due to this. In such a situation, after the elections are over in 5 states including West Bengal, companies can increase the prices. Read the full news…
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