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The poll found that Trump’s approval rating stood at just 38% across the seven states surveyed.
US President Donald Trump stands on stage after speaking at a campaign rally at the Salina Regional Airport in Salina, Kansas. (IMAGE: AP Photo)
Growing dissatisfaction with the administration of US President Donald Trump and frustration over his handling of the economy could work in favour of Democrats when Americans head to the polling booths for the midterm elections on Tuesday.
Ahead of November 3, a poll by The New York Times and Siena found Democratic Senate candidates leading Republicans in five of the six battleground states currently represented by Republican senators. The contest in Iowa was effectively tied, while Democrats held a double-digit advantage in Michigan, the only state in the survey where they are defending a Senate seat.
The findings, based on the final set of Times/Siena surveys before Election Day, point to a potentially historic opportunity for Democrats. The party needs to retain its existing seats and flip at least four Republican-held seats to secure a Senate majority.
The biggest surprises were Texas and Kansas, where Democrats have built leads despite the states’ long Republican voting histories. Texas Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43%, while Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton was ahead of incumbent Republican Roger Marshall 49% to 44%.
Democrats also led in Maine, where Troy Jackson was ahead of Republican Senator Susan Collins 51% to 45%; Ohio, where former senator Sherrod Brown led incumbent Jon Husted 49% to 44%; and Alaska, where Mary Peltola held a narrower 48% to 46% advantage over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.
In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek was marginally ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson, 48% to 47%. Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed had the largest lead in the survey, standing at 53% against Republican Mike Rogers’ 42%.
Economy emerges as key Democratic advantage
At A Glance
A poll by The New York Times and Siena found Democratic Senate candidates leading Republicans in five of the six battleground states currently represented by Republican senators.
US President Donald Trump’s approval rating stood at just 38 percent across the seven states surveyed.
Democrats held a nine-point advantage over Republicans on the issue of the cost of living.
Voters who had made up their minds only in the preceding month favoured Republicans by nine percentage points.
The surveys covered 6,000-plus likely voters across the seven states between October 23 and November 1.
The poll found that Trump’s approval rating stood at just 38% across the seven states surveyed. Democrats also held a nine-point advantage over Republicans on the issue of the cost of living, with their candidates leading on that question in every state.
Voters also gave Democratic candidates an advantage on foreign wars and on who would do a better job for ordinary Americans. The accompanying Times/Siena findings showed Democrats leading on all four issues surveyed in Michigan, Kansas, Texas and Ohio.
Democratic candidates also held a net favourability advantage in six of the seven states. The exception was Maine, where both Jackson and Collins had negative net ratings.
Another advantage for Democrats was their support among independent voters, with Democratic candidates leading this group in every state surveyed.
Late-deciding voters offer Republicans a possible opening
There were, however, reasons for caution. The surveys found that voters who had made up their minds only in the preceding month favoured Republicans by nine percentage points. The presence of undecided voters also leaves room for the final results to differ from the polling picture.
Polling accuracy remains another concern. Collins, for instance, had trailed in every survey before the 2020 election but went on to win re-election comfortably.
The state-wise numbers also reveal how different the contests are. In Texas, Talarico had a 10-point net favourability advantage, with 49% viewing him favourably and 39% unfavourably. Paxton, meanwhile, had the weakest image among the candidates surveyed, with 54% viewing him unfavourably and 33% favourably.
In Kansas, Hamilton’s lead came despite Trump’s strong showing in the state in 2024. The poll also found that he was attracting support from 13% of Republican voters. In Michigan, El-Sayed’s double-digit advantage came even as a public feud within the Democratic Party threatened to complicate his campaign.
Alaska was the only state where the Democratic candidate had lost ground compared with the previous Times/Siena survey in September. The poll was largely completed before a report alleging that political operatives aligned with Peltola had helped recruit another candidate named Dan Sullivan to contest the Senate race.
The surveys covered 6,000-plus likely voters across the seven states, with individual samples ranging from 610 in Alaska to 1,215 in Texas. The polling was conducted between October 23 and November 1.
Quick Answers
Ask News18The poll found Democratic Senate candidates leading Republicans in five of the six battleground states currently represented by Republican senators, with Iowa tied and Michigan holding a double-digit Democratic advantage. Democrats need to retain existing seats and flip at least four Republican-held seats to secure a Senate majority.
Ask News18About the Author
Shankhyaneel Sarkar is a chief sub editor at News18. He covers international affairs, where he focuses on breaking news to in-depth analyses. He has over seven years of experience during which he has …Read More
Washington D.C., United States of America (USA)
November 02, 2026, 1:38 PM IST
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