An interesting and controversial trend has been seen during the second term of US President Trump. Many traders (people who place bets in the stock market) have been seen placing bets worth millions of dollars just before the big announcement. The BBC analyzed trade data from different financial markets and matched it with the timing of Trump’s major statements and announcements. A pattern emerged in this that many times there was a sudden surge in trading just a few hours or minutes before his statement came out. Some experts believe that this could be a case of insider trading. This means that information was already being leaked, due to which the trust of common investors is being tampered with. Some other experts say that the matter is not so simple. Some traders have now become experts in anticipating Trump’s decisions and statements. Understand from these 5 examples how some selected people earned… 28 February 2026: 6 new accounts after the attack on Iran. Blockchain analysis site ‘Bubblemaps’ revealed that 6 new accounts were suddenly created in February. The Bet: All these accounts invested heavily in favor of a US attack on Iran by February 28. Result: As soon as Trump confirmed the attack, these accounts earned a total of Rs 9.9 crore ($12 lakh). Pattern: 5 of these accounts never placed any bets after this. Another account later earned another Rs 1.35 crore by correctly predicting the ceasefire. January 3, 2026: Account created on speculation on Maduro, closed after earnings. Online prediction markets (like Polymarket and Kalsi) also came under suspicion. Donald Trump Jr. is associated with these forums. In December 2025, a new account named ‘burdensome-mix’ was created. Between December 30 and January 2, the account raised a total of $32,500 to call for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to step down. Maduro was removed from office on January 3. That account won $4.36 lakh (about Rs 4 crore) and immediately changed its username and became inactive. For this reason, people suspect that perhaps he already had inside information. 23 March 2026: Profit of more than 250 crores in 14 minutes’ game. Trump announced to solve the problem with Tehran by posting on ‘Truth Social’. The stock market surged immediately after the post and US oil prices fell sharply. Suspicious activity: Large bets were placed on oil prices falling 14 minutes before Trump’s post. This is called ‘short selling’, in which traders make a deal to sell oil at a higher price and make profits by buying it cheaper as soon as the price falls. The fall of $15 per barrel gave someone an estimated profit of more than Rs 250 crore in that suspicious time. Timeline: March 9, 2026: Bet on oil 47 minutes ago, made profit. On the 9th day of the Iran war, Trump claimed in the interview that the conflict is over. The news hit social media at 7:16 pm, causing oil prices to fall 25%. But suspicious trading had started only 47 minutes earlier (6:29 pm). Some investors made huge profits of around Rs 460 crore by placing bets on 4,000 contracts through ‘short selling’, which is a sign of insider trading. Timeline: April 2, 2025: 90-day ban on tariffs, 30-fold jump in trading. Trump imposed heavy tariffs on global imports, but a week later suddenly gave 90-day relief to other countries except China. This announcement caused a tsunami in the markets and the S&P 500 index jumped 9.5%, which was the biggest gain since the Second World War. Suspiciously at 6:00 pm the trading speed suddenly crossed 10,000 contracts per minute. Some traders made a profit of Rs 1165 crore by placing bets of Rs 16.5 crore. MPs demanded an investigation into this. Timeline: Insider trading has been illegal in America for 93 years. Insider trading is considered illegal because some people get access to confidential information that is not known to ordinary investors. On the basis of this information, they invest money beforehand and earn huge profits later. This destroys equality in the market and breaks the trust of common people. Insider trading has been illegal in the US since 1933. In 2012, the rules were further tightened and government officials, MPs and their staff also came under the ambit of this law. That means, if any leader or government person gets inside information, he cannot trade using it. But the real problem is that it is very difficult to get punishment in such cases. Under the law, it is necessary to prove that the information was truly confidential, that it was intentionally leaked, and that the person who traded received the same inside information. If this complete link is not proved, the case does not proceed further. Professor Paul Odin of ESSEC Business School says that sometimes looking at trading patterns it becomes clear that someone had prior knowledge, such as sudden heavy betting just before a big announcement. But until it is known where the information came from and who gave it, it becomes almost impossible to take legal action.
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Earned crores by placing bets before Trump’s announcement: Suspicions of insider trading deepened, investors’ confidence shaken
