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The sudden nip in the air has naturally triggered the question as to whether winter has arrived early this year and if El Nino could be responsible.
Delhi’s minimum temperature dropped to 21°C on Sunday, September 27, its lowest September minimum since 2001 and the second-lowest September reading in 25 years. (PTI Photo/Salman Ali)
Delhi and several parts of north India have seen an unusually sharp change in weather over the past few days, with rain, cloudy skies and temperatures falling well below the levels usually expected at the end of September. Delhi’s minimum temperature dropped to 21°C on Sunday, September 27, its lowest September minimum since 2001 and the second-lowest September reading in 25 years.
The sudden nip in the air has naturally triggered the question as to whether winter has arrived early this year, and if the developing El Niño could be responsible.
According to weather experts cited in recent reports, the answer for the current cold spell is largely no. The immediate temperature drop is being attributed to a combination of an active weather system, widespread rain, persistent cloud cover and the ongoing withdrawal of the southwest monsoon.
However, El Niño remains important for the larger winter picture, and its potential influence could become clearer over the coming months.
Why Did Temperatures Suddenly Dip?
The current spell is primarily a result of a prolonged weather disturbance rather than an early seasonal shift. Speaking to India Today, Devendra Tripathi, founder of Mausam Tak, explained that a deep depression that moved inland from the Bay of Bengal remained active for an unusually long period. “The deep depression from the Bay of Bengal was a very long-lasting system and received considerable support because this is the time when the monsoon begins its withdrawal,” he said.
The system brought widespread rain across several states, including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana and parts of north India. Delhi-NCR also received rain, while cloud cover remained persistent.
At A Glance
Delhi’s minimum temperature dropped to 21°C on Sunday, September 27.
This was Delhi’s lowest September minimum temperature since 2001.
The current cold spell is attributed to a prolonged weather disturbance and widespread rain.
The World Meteorological Organization expects the El Niño event to persist through February 2027.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region were 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average in late July and August.
With less sunshine reaching the surface, temperatures can fall sharply, particularly when the rain continues for several days.
A Western Disturbance moving across northern India, meanwhile, interacted with a depression over central India, helping trigger rainfall across parts of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Delhi-NCR.
A Western Disturbance is an eastward-moving weather system originating around the Mediterranean region. While these systems are much more commonly associated with winter weather in north India, they can occasionally influence the region during the transition between seasons.
The hills have already seen signs of the changing weather. Kinnaur in Himachal Pradesh recorded the season’s first snowfall, while snowfall was also reported around Rohtang Pass. Higher reaches of Uttarakhand also saw snow.
Does This Mean Winter Is Arriving Early?
The present evidence reportedly doesn’t point to an early winter arrival. Reports say that the current cool spell is temporary and does not indicate an early onset of winter. As the depression weakens and cloud cover decreases, temperatures in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are expected to rise again from around September 30 and October 1.
The current weather is therefore a temporary post-rain cooling episode during the transition out of the monsoon, rather than the beginning of the winter season.
September weather in north India can fluctuate dramatically. A few days of persistent rain can push temperatures down, only for sunshine and dry winds to bring them back up quickly.
The Role Of El Nino
El Nino is a different, and much larger, climate signal.
The phenomenon involves unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It alters atmospheric circulation and can influence rainfall and temperatures thousands of kilometres away.
This year’s El Niño is particularly significant. The World Meteorological Organization said in September that the event is firmly established and is expected to strengthen further, with an almost 100 per cent likelihood of persisting through February 2027.
According to the WMO, sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region were already around 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average in late July and August. The organisation expects the event to peak towards the end of 2026.
But a strong El Niño does not automatically mean that every part of India will become warmer immediately.
Climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology told The New Indian Express in July that El Niño’s effects have to be viewed over a much longer period. “The concern this time is that a rapidly strengthening El Niño is occurring over an ocean and atmosphere already warmed by climate change. There is a high chance that it will become an exceptionally strong event in the next few months, raising temperatures and altering rainfall patterns across the globe,” Roxy said.
He also cautioned against interpreting the developing El Niño as an immediate change in India’s weather. “This does not mean that an intense summer will begin in November,” he said, adding that the effects of higher temperatures could become more evident during the March-May period of 2027.
Could This Mean A Warmer Winter?
Another expert quoted by The New Indian Express, former National Institute of Oceanography director S Prasannakumar, said the 2026-27 El Niño is expected to peak during late autumn or early winter. “The 2026-27 El Niño is still evolving and is expected to peak during late autumn or early winter (October–December 2026),” Prasannakumar said.
He also suggested that the event could contribute to warmer conditions through winter and into 2027.
Reports note that El Niño’s influence on India’s winter cannot be reduced to a simple “El Niño equals warm winter” equation. Winter temperatures depend on several atmospheric and regional factors, including circulation patterns, western disturbances, cloud cover and ocean conditions.
This is particularly important for north India, where winter temperatures are also strongly influenced by the frequency and strength of western disturbances.
IMD’s Winter Forecast
The India Meteorological Department has not yet issued its formal winter 2026-27 seasonal outlook for December-February. IMD’s seasonal forecasting framework includes a specific winter outlook covering minimum temperatures and cold-wave conditions, as well as winter rainfall over northwest India.
For now, its short-range forecasts point to the present spell easing rather than an immediate transition into winter. IMD has indicated that rainfall over parts of north India will decline as the current systems weaken, with clearer weather expected in the days ahead.
The department has also indicated that the southwest monsoon’s withdrawal is progressing.
That means a clearer picture of the winter season will emerge only as October progresses and IMD’s seasonal outlook becomes available.
The September chill, therefore, is not proof that winter has arrived early, and experts are not linking this particular temperature drop to El Niño.
The bigger El Niño question concerns what happens after the monsoon withdrawal in terms of rainfall patterns, dry spells, winter temperatures and the evolution of weather systems through December, January and February.
There is also an agricultural dimension. Wheat and other rabi crops require sufficiently cool conditions during key stages of their growth. A warmer late winter can shorten the crop’s growth period and affect yields. A prolonged El Niño could also contribute to reduced post-monsoon rainfall and put additional pressure on reservoirs and irrigation.
So, while Delhi may have briefly felt like winter in September, the weather story is not quite there yet. The present cold is being driven by rain and atmospheric systems, while El Niño is a separate, longer-term climate factor that could shape the winter ahead.
For now, the most likely scenario is that the warmth returns before winter properly takes hold. The real test for the 2026-27 winter will come later, when the monsoon has fully withdrawn, western disturbances begin to become more relevant and IMD releases its seasonal outlook.
Quick Answers
Ask News18The sudden dip in temperatures was caused by a prolonged weather disturbance, featuring a deep depression from the Bay of Bengal, widespread rain, persistent cloud cover, and an interacting Western Disturbance.
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Pragati is a News Editor at news18.com. Having headed the Business and Viral sections, Pragati now ideates, writes and edits long-form features and articles on national and global affairs. She ensures…Read More
September 29, 2026, 10:56 IST
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