Assam Election 2026: Opinion Poll Predicts Hat-Trick For BJP-Led NDA, Himanta Top Choice As CM

Last Updated:March 23, 2026, 6:37 PM IST

CM Himanta Biswa Sarma continues to be a central factor in the NDA’s prospects as nearly half of those surveyed (48%) named Sarma as their preferred Chief Minister.

Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma (X/@himantabiswa)

The National Democratic Alliance, led by the BJP, is on course for a decisive third straight victory in Assam, according to the latest Vote Tracker survey by VoteVibe, released exclusively on CNN-News18.

The pre-poll assessment projects the NDA winning between 80 and 90 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly, comfortably above the majority threshold.

In contrast, the opposition INDIA bloc is expected to secure 29–39 seats, while regional and smaller parties are likely to remain on the fringes.

Region-wise estimates suggest the NDA is ahead across most of the state, with particularly strong leads in Upper Assam, Lower Assam, and the North Bank, pointing to a wide and evenly spread support base.

Himanta Factor

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma continues to be a central factor in the NDA’s prospects. Nearly half of those surveyed (48%) named Sarma as their preferred Chief Minister, ahead of Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi, who garnered 37.7% support.

Vote Share

The survey also places the NDA ahead in vote share, with 42.7% of respondents indicating support for the ruling alliance, compared with 36.1% backing the opposition.

Importantly, perceptions appear to favour the NDA, with 51.8% of respondents saying it is most likely to form the next government, well ahead of its rivals.

On governance, opinions were largely favourable. Around 50.6% of respondents rated the Sarma government’s actions against illegal immigration from Bangladesh as “good” or “very good,” while about a quarter described the performance as average.

A smaller segment expressed dissatisfaction, and some respondents remained undecided.

Overall, 47% of those polled said they were satisfied with the state government’s performance, indicating that anti-incumbency sentiment has not significantly weakened the NDA’s position.

Welfare Schemes

The poll indicates strong NDA support among key social groups, particularly SC, OBC, and upper-caste voters.

Welfare initiatives also appear to be reinforcing this base. About 42.8% of respondents believe the ₹9,000 direct benefit transfer scheme for women could further consolidate support for the ruling alliance.

Challenges That Remain

Despite its advantage, the survey highlights unemployment as the top voter concern, cited by 25.7% of respondents, followed by issues related to floods, rehabilitation, and corruption.

The NDA also shows relative vulnerability among younger voters aged 18-24, where the opposition seems to have comparatively better traction.

While the opposition alliance remains competitive in select pockets, especially among minority voters and in some rural regions, the poll suggests it has yet to assemble a broad-based coalition capable of mounting a statewide challenge to the NDA.

Though opinion polls offer only a snapshot and not a final verdict, the latest data indicates that the NDA enters the Assam Election 2026 with a clear and potentially commanding edge.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, the BJP-led NDA returned to power for a second consecutive term, winning 75 seats, with Himanta Biswa Sarma taking office as Chief Minister.

Read More