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India adds 10–15 million new ACs annually. Without energy efficiency, ACs alone could drive peak power demand by 2030, say experts
According to the report, over 1,000 AC models already perform above India’s current 5-star efficiency threshold. (File for representation)
As electricity demand breaks all previous records in India due to the rising temperatures, experts say the country can avoid power shortages and save consumers up to ₹2.5 lakh crore just by doubling the energy efficiency of room air conditioners (ACs) over the next decade.
This comes at a time when searing heatwaves sweep most parts of the country, with mercury settling past 45℃.
The national capital recorded four consecutive days of heatwaves last week, with warm night conditions now taking a toll on public health. As the demand for cooling shot up, the Ministry of Power issued a statement that electricity demand in India crossed all previous records last week.
On the afternoon of May 21, at 3:45 pm, India touched a new all-time high-power demand of 270.82 GW, compelling the ministry to urge people to “use electricity wisely and judiciously” as summer hits its peak.
In their latest study, researchers from the India Energy and Climate Center (IECC) at the University of California (UC) Berkeley, highlight that India adds 10-15 million new ACs annually, with another 130-150 million expected over the next decade. Without policy intervention, ACs alone could drive 120 GW of peak power demand by 2030 and 180 GW by 2035, which is over 30% of the projected national peak demand.
“ACs are already contributing 60 to 70 GW to peak demand, and their growth is outpacing the grid’s ability to keep up after sunset. Without intervention, we risk blackouts or costly emergency fixes,” said Nikit Abhyankar, lead author and faculty member at UC Berkeley.
While the Bureau of Energy Efficiency has already planned a 2028 upgrade to AC efficiency standards, raising the minimum threshold by 25% as an important milestone, the study calls for a long-term roadmap that raises the bar until the most efficient AC available in India today becomes the minimum standard by 2033. “This could reduce peak demand by 10 GW by 2030 and 47 GW by 2035, which is equivalent to roughly 100 large power plants, saving an estimated ₹8 lakh crore in avoided power infrastructure investment,” the study stated.
The authors highlight that even with slightly higher upfront prices, they could deliver net savings of ₹90,000-2,40,000 crore by 2035, paying for themselves within 2–3 years through lower electricity bills. “A common concern is that more efficient ACs will be more expensive. But our analysis of global markets, including India, shows that efficiency is not the main driver of retail prices. With the right policy support, higher efficiency can go hand in hand with lower costs as manufacturers scale production, supply chains mature, and markets become more competitive,” said co-author Amol Phadke.
According to the report, over 1,000 AC models already perform above India’s current 5-star efficiency threshold, with many produced by domestic manufacturers. With urban AC ownership still at just 15% and rising fast, the report stressed that decisions made now will shape India’s energy future.
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