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The Nepal floods offer a stark reminder of the risks of building enormous infrastructure in ecologically sensitive terrain, and China has undertaken multiple such projects.
A study says repeated movement along the fault could destabilise surrounding rock masses and mountain slopes, increasing the likelihood of landslides, rock collapses and ground deformation around the project. (Representational Image)
The devastation unfolding along Nepal’s Bhote Koshi River has put a fresh spotlight on the risk that some of China’s mega projects could be posing to Asian ecology. The latest tragedy has brought up a question India has long asked – what happens when some of Asia’s most powerful rivers and most ambitious infrastructure projects sit upstream, in one of the world’s most fragile and earthquake-prone regions?
The disaster along the Nepal-Tibet border was linked in initial assessments to a massive ice-and-rock landslide, with Nepalese authorities saying an earthquake may have triggered the event. The flash flood killed more than 160 people, damaged bridges and roads and left hundreds missing. The disaster has also revived scrutiny of China’s massive hydropower plans in Tibet, particularly the proposed project on the Yarlung Tsangpo – the river that becomes the Siang and then the Brahmaputra after entering India.
The Bhote Koshi disaster offers a stark reminder of the risks of building enormous infrastructure in terrain where earthquakes, landslides, avalanches and glacial events can cascade with devastating speed.
China has undertaken several such projects over the past few decades – some already operational, some under construction and some revived in recent years. They promise electricity, transport, water security and economic development. But many have also attracted warnings over seismicity, landslides, ecological damage, displacement or downstream consequences.
Here are six of the biggest examples.
1. The Brahmaputra Mega-Dam: A Ticking Time Bomb
China formally began construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project in July 2025. Beijing says the project will consist of five cascade hydropower stations, with an estimated investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan.
The project is planned in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo, close to the Indian border. After the river makes its dramatic turn through the Himalayas, it enters India as the Siang in Arunachal Pradesh and eventually becomes the Brahmaputra.
The attraction is obvious: the river drops dramatically as it cuts through the Himalayan gorge, offering enormous hydropower potential.
The concern is equally obvious. The project sits in a region shaped by the collision of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates. Earthquakes, landslides and rockfalls are not hypothetical risks in this part of the Himalayas.
This concern has become more difficult to dismiss after the latest Nepal disaster. A study by geologists associated with China’s state geological survey reportedly identified an active fault beneath the Medog hydropower area, while experts have warned that a major earthquake could trigger secondary landslides and debris flows even if a dam itself survives.
For India, the worry is therefore not simply the oft-repeated claim that China could “turn off” the Brahmaputra. The more serious questions concern water-flow regulation, sediment, ecological changes, disaster preparedness and access to real-time information about what is happening upstream.
That is precisely why the Bhote Koshi disaster has become such a powerful backdrop to the Brahmaputra debate.
2. Sichuan-Tibet Railway: Building Through An Earthquake Zone
China’s ambition in Tibet extends well beyond dams. The Sichuan-Tibet Railway is one of the country’s most difficult infrastructure undertakings. In September 2020, China’s National Development and Reform Commission approved the Ya’an-Linzhi section, estimating its cost at 319.8 billion yuan. The line is planned to run for 1,011 km, with 26 stations.
China’s own authorities acknowledge the extraordinary engineering challenge. The railway passes through some of the most difficult terrain on the planet, requiring extensive bridges, tunnels and supporting infrastructure. The project also requires hundreds of kilometres of temporary construction roads and thousands of kilometres of power lines.
The problem is the geology. The Tibetan Plateau is characterised by intense tectonic activity, steep mountains, permafrost, landslides and extreme weather. Building a railway through such terrain means engineers have to account not only for earthquakes but also for the possibility that an earthquake can trigger a chain reaction of rockfalls, landslides and debris flows.
China has therefore had to place considerable emphasis on geological surveys and construction safety. Its National Development and Reform Commission specifically called for deeper geological exploration and strengthened supervision of construction quality, safety and ecological protection when the project moved into its implementation phase.
3. Baihetan Dam: A $30-Billion Giant In The Seismic Southwest
Located on the Jinsha River between Sichuan and Yunnan, Baihetan has an installed capacity of 16 million kilowatts, making it the world’s second-largest hydropower station by installed capacity after Three Gorges. Its 16 generating units each have a capacity of one million kilowatts.
But giant reservoirs come with geological consequences. Scientists studying the reservoir have examined the potential for reservoir-induced seismicity – changes in stress and pore pressure caused by the enormous volume of water stored behind a dam.
There is also a documented landslide concern. A 2023 study examining Baihetan found that the area classified as having high landslide susceptibility expanded by 14.26 square kilometres as the reservoir water level rose by 150 metres. The reservoir began impounding water in April 2021, with the water surface rising from about 660 metres to 812 metres by October.
Another study specifically examined potential earthquake risks around the newly impounded Baihetan reservoir and changes in the surrounding lithosphere.
This shows that the geological risks of mega-dams don’t end when construction is completed. The reservoir itself changes the physical environment and must be continuously monitored.
4. South-to-North Water Transfer
The South-to-North Water Diversion Project is one of the clearest demonstration of China’s willingness to fundamentally alter the country’s natural water geography.
Construction on the middle route officially began in December 2003, and that route opened in December 2014. The wider project is designed to move approximately 45 cubic kilometres of water every year from China’s wetter south towards the water-stressed north.
The financial scale is enormous. China’s official figure is about $62 billion, while other assessments put the cost of the completed eastern and central routes at around $79.4 billion. Those estimates also point to the cost of resettling as many as 375,000 people affected by reservoir enlargement and canal construction.
The risks here are different from those of the Himalayan dams. They include ecological changes in source regions, water-quality problems, displacement, the enormous maintenance burden and questions over whether transferring water can solve the underlying problem of overuse in northern China.
A 2025 academic review concluded that the project’s long-term sustainability remains a significant question because of its environmental and social consequences as well as uncertainty surrounding some of its benefits.
5. Longpan/Tiger Leaping Gorge: A Dam Plan That Keeps Coming Back
The proposed hydropower station at Tiger Leaping Gorge in Yunnan has returned to public debate despite years of controversy. The project forms part of a much larger plan to develop a cascade of dams along the Jinsha River, the upper reaches of the Yangtze.
Critics have raised concerns over landslides, earthquakes, ecological destruction and the displacement of communities. A detailed 2024 analysis by Chinese geologist Fan Xiao, republished by Probe International, argued that the project raised serious geological, environmental and social concerns and noted that Longpan had not been included as a construction project in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, although preliminary studies were contemplated.
6. Three Gorges: The Mega-Dam That Set the Template
Three Gorges predates the current wave of Chinese mega-projects, but no discussion of China’s appetite for enormous infrastructure, despite warnings, is complete without it.
Three Gorges involved enormous population displacement and generated years of debate over landslides, reservoir-induced seismicity, sediment and ecological changes.
A World Bank technical assessment of the project identified displacement and resettlement as among the central problems associated with the dam, alongside downstream changes in water flows and impacts on fisheries.
The Three Gorges Reservoir has experienced extensive landslide activity, including thousands of documented landslides and rock avalanches in the reservoir area. A major scientific review identified 4,256 landslides and rock avalanches, along with debris flows and ground fissures. Many landslides have been reactivated or show movement linked to rainfall and reservoir-level fluctuations.
There is also evidence linking reservoir impoundment to seismic activity. A peer-reviewed study found that the 2013 magnitude-5.1 Badong earthquake, the largest earthquake recorded in the Three Gorges Reservoir region up to that point, occurred in circumstances consistent with water-induced seismicity.
From Three Gorges To Brahmaputra: What Has Changed?
China’s projects have become bigger, more ambitious and increasingly concentrated in places where geography itself presents a formidable challenge.
The Nepal catastrophe has demonstrated how quickly a geological event in Tibet can become a humanitarian emergency downstream. The latest disaster has already been linked to an ice-and-rock landslide, with the precise chain of triggers still being investigated.
China controls the upstream side of several rivers that are vital to downstream Asian countries. As its infrastructure footprint grows, the importance of transparency, geological monitoring, hydrological data-sharing and real-time disaster warnings grows with it.
After Bhote Koshi, the question is no longer merely how much electricity China’s Himalayan dams can generate. It is also – when something goes wrong upstream, how much will the countries downstream know, and how quickly will they know it?
Quick Answers
Ask News18China’s mega-dams could lead to river flows drying up considerably while reservoirs are being filled, and sudden releases could increase flood risks downstream in countries like India. There are also concerns about the dam’s location in a seismically active region, which could lead to landslides, rockfalls, and ground deformation.
Ask News18About the Author
Pragati is a News Editor at news18.com. Having headed the Business and Viral sections, Pragati now ideates, writes and edits long-form features and articles on national and global affairs. She ensures…Read More
August 27, 2026, 10:12 IST
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