The week ahead promises intense action on D-Street packed with domestic events, primary market buzz, corporate action, and some major global cues, which will keep investors busy as Indian markets navigates with caution amid new geopolitical tensions. The last leg of April-June quarter results declared the previous week will drive stock-specific action, while the US Federal Reserve policy minutes and macroeconomic data will be analysed for sector-specific trade movement.
New announcements on US tariff rates and progress on India-US trade deal negotiations and Trump tariff rates are likely to influence movement in the domestic market this week. The US-Iran geopoliticla conflict will continue to impact the movement of global crude oil prices. Trading activity of foreign investors would also influence the overall market trend.
A key trigger for domestic equities will be the release of the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee’s July 28-29 meeting on August 19.
The minutes are likely to provide greater clarity on the debate within the US central bank after policymakers voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50 per cent-3.75 per cent.
Geopolitical developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict will remain another major focus for markets.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has reiterated Tehran’s position on the Strait of Hormuz, saying the strategic waterway has been, and will remain, under Iranian control.
Crude oil prices will therefore remain closely watched. Oil futures rose more than $1 a barrel on Friday amid attacks on tankers and a lack of significant progress towards a peace agreement between the Trump administration and Iran.
For India, sustained high crude prices could add pressure on inflation, the rupee and corporate margins, particularly for sectors with high energy and transportation costs.
A further rise in oil prices could consequently weigh on investor sentiment and complicate expectations around domestic interest rates.
Foreign and domestic institutional flows will also remain an important market driver. Foreign institutional investors turned net buyers on August 14, purchasing shares worth Rs 12,854.44 crore and selling equities worth Rs 12,346.32 crore, resulting in net buying of Rs 508.12 crore.
Domestic institutional investors also remained buyers, with purchases of Rs 14,295.49 crore against sales of Rs 13,939.09 crore, resulting in net buying of Rs 356.40 crore.
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