US President Donald Trump once posted on Twitter, “What a rotten deal we made”, all the way back in 2013. This was right after the announcement of the Joint Plan of Action (JPA), an interim agreement between Iran and five countries led by the US, then under the Barack Obama presidency. More than a decade later, Trump, now serving his second term as US President, has signed a deal with Iran that many, especially his erstwhile ally Israel, say is tantamount to Washington surrendering to Tehran. So did Trump make a prophecy?
Let’s first compare the two deals: the one signed by the Obama administration and its Trump administration counterpart.
The 2013 Interim Iran Nuclear Deal, formally called the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), was reached on November 24, 2013, between Iran and the P5+1 nations (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany). Building upon that, another deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in 2015.
Without getting into too many details, the premise of these agreements is simple enough. In return for Iran limiting uranium enrichment, slashing its stock of enriched uranium and allowing regular inspections of its existing nuclear facilities, the US and the rest of the P5 countries would gradually ease sanctions on Tehran and lift restrictions on oil trade.
Neither of the two deals addressed Tehran’s ballistic missile programme or its support for proxy groups across the Middle East, a bone of contention for others in the region, like Israel. That being said, the agreements used sanctions relief as leverage to commit Iran to pausing key aspects of its nuclear programme, at least on paper.
Trump, however, disagreed. Right from the start, he classified it as “rotten”. In 2013, the current US President tweeted, “What a rotten deal we made with Iran. We get nothing (except laughter at our stupidity). They get everything, including delay and big cash!” And it was not the last such statement he made.
In 2015, after the signing of the JCPOA, Trump again posted, “The deal with Iran will go down as one of the most incompetent ever made. The US lost on virtually every point. We just don’t win any more!”
That same year, he had claimed that the agreements would do nothing to curtail Iran’s nuclear weapon ambitions, and would instead, “set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, which is the most unstable region in the world. It is a horrible and perhaps catastrophic event for Israel.”
And in 2016, during his presidential campaign, Trump, speaking at an AIPAC Conference, lambasted the Obama Administration’s agreements with Iran as being “incompetent” and “disastrous”. He also stated he was able to come to the conclusion because, “I have been in business a long time, I know deal making and let me tell you, this deal is catastrophic for America, for Israel and for the whole of the Middle East.”
So, would Trump, who by his own admission knows the art of “deal making”, sign off on a better agreement with Tehran?
No such agreement emerged during Trump’s first administration. Instead, he consigned the Obama-era deals to the dustbin of history before piling on new sanctions on Iran. The objective was simple: exert maximum pressure on Tehran to abandon any ambitions of developing nuclear weapons, stop supporting proxy groups and halt the development of ballistic missiles.
More than a decade after his first “rotten deal” tweet, however, those criticisms would come back to haunt him.
Donald Trump would finally get his agreement during his second stint as President in 2026, after a months-long war that saw Iran absorb everything the US threw at it while exacting a disproportionately high cost on the US and the rest of the world by shutting down one of the world’s most important energy waterways.
On Thursday, Trump signed a 14-point interim deal with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the historic Palace of Versailles in France — the same venue where the Allies imposed a harsh peace treaty on Germany after World War One in 1919.
The details of this agreement make for sobering reading for those wary of Tehran. The deal grants Iran significant concessions, including the right to maintain a ballistic missile programme, an immediate end to military operations, the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US naval blockade.
Economically, it allows Iran the immediate free export of its oil along with related banking and shipping services, access to previously frozen funds and international support for a $300 billion reconstruction package. Over the next 60 days, nuclear negotiations will proceed with IAEA oversight of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles in exchange for phased sanctions relief.
This is the agreement Trump ultimately secured after a costly military campaign involving billions of dollars and loss of life, following his earlier decision to tear up the 2015 JCPOA, which had offered Tehran far fewer concessions.
Critics have been harsh. David Horowitz, founding editor of The Times of Israel, wrote: “Trump’s deal is a catastrophic capitulation to Iran’s aggressors, leaving Israel vulnerable and constrained.”
Israeli journalist and commentator Gideon Levy also described the deal as “the defeat of Israel and the personal defeat of Netanyahu.”
Thirteen years ago, Trump denounced an Iran deal for giving Tehran “delay” and “cash”. In 2026, after tearing up that agreement, waging a costly military campaign and imposing years of sanctions, he ended up signing a deal that critics say grants Iran even more. If Trump’s 2013 tweet was not a prophecy, it came remarkably close to becoming one.
– Ends
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