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Perhaps the biggest concern within BJP circles is that the leadership transition allows Congress to present itself as politically refreshed
Shivakumar‘s elevation has complicated the party’s electoral calculations ahead of the 2028 assembly election. (X @DKShivakumar)
When DK Shivakumar finally took oath as Karnataka’s chief minister on Wednesday, it marked the end of a long, and bitter, succession battle within the Congress. But while the ceremony was a moment of celebration for the ruling party, it has also triggered a fresh round of introspection within the BJP.
According to BJP leaders quoted by The Indian Express, Shivakumar‘s elevation has complicated the party’s electoral calculations ahead of the 2028 assembly election. The concern is not merely that Congress has changed its chief minister. It is that the party may have managed to convert what was once seen as its biggest vulnerability into a political advantage.
For years, the BJP had counted on three factors working in its favour in the state: anti-incumbency against the Congress government, the possibility of a damaging power struggle between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumarand an opportunity to make further gains in the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysuru region through its alliance with the JD(S).
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Now, party leaders believe each of those assumptions may need revisiting.
Congress Has Defused A Potential Political Crisis
One of the BJP’s biggest expectations was that the unresolved power-sharing arrangement between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar would eventually weaken the Congress government.
The issue had lingered ever since Congress came to power in 2023, with speculation every now and then over whether Siddaramaiah would honour an alleged rotational chief ministership formula.
According to The Indian Express, BJP leaders believed the prolonged uncertainty would fuel factionalism and eventually hurt governance. Instead, the Congress high command managed to oversee a relatively smooth transfer of power.
There were no major resignations, no visible rebellion and no public split.
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More importantly, Congress appears to have ensured that Siddaramaiah’s political stature remains intact even after stepping down. The former chief minister has been accommodated within the party’s national structure, while many of his loyalists continue to hold influence in the government and organisation. He was also offered a Rajya Sabha berth, which he refused, and has now been appointed to the Congress Working Committee.
For BJP, that means a potential Congress crisis has been averted, at least for now.
Congress Hits Reset Button
Perhaps the biggest concern within BJP circles is that the leadership transition allows Congress to present itself as politically refreshed.
BJP leaders quoted by The Times of India believe the change has given the Grand Old Party an opportunity to reset the government’s image midway through its term.
Instead of contesting the next election as a government that has been in office for five years, Congress can now project the Shivakumar administration as a new phase with renewed energy and priorities. This matters because anti-incumbency has historically been one of the most potent forces in Karnataka politics. The state has often witnessed governments being voted out after a single term.
By changing chief ministers halfway through its tenure, Congress may have diluted some of the fatigue and dissatisfaction that naturally accumulates against an incumbent administration.
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Whether voters buy into that narrative remains to be seen, but BJP leaders quoted by The Indian Express acknowledge that the political equation has changed.
Battle For Old Mysuru
The leadership transition is not just about personalities, but about caste arithmetic.
Shivakumar is one of Karnataka’s most influential Vokkaliga leaders. His rise to the top post gives Congress a powerful face in a region where the party, BJP and JD(S) are engaged in an intense three-cornered contest.
This has not come as good news for the BJP, which is now concerned about the implications in the Old Mysuru region, where the party has been trying to expand its footprint for years.
The BJP’s alliance with JD(S) was partly designed to strengthen its appeal among Vokkaliga voters and challenge Congress in southern Karnataka. Shivakumar’s elevation threatens to complicate that strategy.
Congress leaders believe having a Vokkaliga chief minister could help consolidate support among sections of the community that may have drifted towards the BJP-JD(S) combine in recent years. If that happens, the impact could be felt across dozens of assembly constituencies.
BJP Faces A Leadership Question Of Its Own
Congress may have settled its succession battle, but BJP still faces questions about who will lead the party into the next assembly election.
According to The Indian Express, BJP leaders privately acknowledge that Shivakumar’s elevation has sharpened the focus on their own leadership structure.
The party has several experienced leaders, including former chief minister Basavaraj Bommai, state president BY Vijayendra and Leader of Opposition R Ashoka. Yet it has not projected a clear chief ministerial face for 2028.
Shivakumar’s rise therefore presents a contrast: Congress now has a leader who combines organisational authority with governmental power, while BJP continues to balance multiple centres of influence.
The challenge for the Opposition will be to build a coherent counter-narrative before the next election cycle.
DKS Brings More Than Electoral Appeal
Another reason BJP is taking Shivakumar’s elevation seriously is his reputation within Congress.
Unlike many chief ministers who emerge primarily as mass leaders, Shivakumar has spent years building a reputation as an organisational strategist, troubleshooter and political manager.
He played a central role in Congress’s victory in the 2023 assembly election and has frequently been entrusted with politically sensitive assignments by the party leadership. His supporters often point out that he combines grassroots mobilisation skills with an ability to manage the party machinery.
That means BJP is not simply dealing with a new chief minister; it is dealing with one of Congress’s most effective political operators.
Congress Has Seized The Narrative
For much of the past three years, political discussion in Karnataka revolved around one question: when would the Shivakumar-Siddaramaiah issue explode?
The Congress leadership has now attempted to turn that narrative on its head. Instead of a succession dispute, the party wants voters to see a successful leadership transition. And instead of a government approaching the end of its term, it wants to present a fresh administration with a new chief minister at the helm.
Chance For BJP?
However, the BJP is not without ammunition.
Party leaders argue that the transition does not erase the challenges facing the Congress government. Inflation, infrastructure concerns, fiscal pressures arising from welfare guarantees, water shortages and urban governance issues are all likely to remain central political issues over the next two years.
Shivakumar also carries political baggage of his own. The BJP is expected to continue targeting him over corruption allegations that have followed him for years, even as he has consistently denied wrongdoing.
Most importantly, the standards by which Shivakumar will now be judged are very different. As deputy chief minister and Karnataka Congress president, he could often point to competing power centres within the government. As chief minister, responsibility for governance ultimately rests with him.
According to BJP leaders quoted by The Indian Express, the concern is not simply that Congress has changed chief ministers. It is that the party may have simultaneously neutralised a potential succession crisis, refreshed its government midway through its term, strengthened its position among Vokkaliga voters and elevated one of its strongest organisers to the state’s top office.
This means the BJP now finds itself facing a party that believes it has been politically rejuvenated. And that, more than the change of chief minister itself, is what makes DK Shivakumar’s elevation significant for the Opposition.
About the Author
Apoorva Misra is News Editor at News18.com with over nine years of experience. She is a graduate from Delhi University’s Lady Shri Ram College and holds a PG Diploma from Asian College of Journalism, …Read More
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