Jefferies Says Gold Enters Consolidation Phase After Rally: Should You Buy Now, Wait Or Start SIP?

Last Updated:April 17, 2026, 12:29 IST

Brokerage firm Jefferies says demand momentum has started moderating after a strong surge, indicating that prices may now stabilise or move in a range. Here’s what you should do:

Axis Securities expects domestic gold prices to reach Rs 1,70,000 to Rs 1,85,000 over the next year.

Gold prices may be entering a pause after a sharp rally, according to Jefferies. It said the precious metal has moved into a “healthy consolidation period” after heavy retail-driven buying seen late last year and early this year in key markets such as India, China and the US.

The brokerage said demand momentum has started moderating after a strong surge, indicating that prices may now stabilise or move in a range after the earlier run-up.

With Akshaya Tritiya falling on April 19, many Indian buyers may now be wondering whether to buy immediately, wait for a dip, or invest gradually through SIPs. The festival, considered highly auspicious for purchasing gold and other valuables, typically drives a sharp surge in jewellery demand, contributing significantly to annual sales for major brands.

What Does Consolidation Mean?

A consolidation phase usually means prices stop rising sharply and instead move sideways, remain range-bound, or see mild corrections after a strong rally. This does not automatically mean the bull market is over. Often, it reflects profit booking and the market digesting previous gains before the next move.

Jefferies in its latest report said India’s gold imports, which were elevated at $14.7 billion in October and $12.1 billion in January, fell sharply to $3.1 billion in March, signalling cooling buying momentum.

Why Did Gold Rally Recently?

Gold saw strong gains over the past two years amid global uncertainty, inflation concerns, central bank buying and investor demand.

Deveya Gaglani, senior research analyst (commodities) at Axis Securities, said gold delivered strong returns around Akshaya Tritiya over the last five years, with gains of roughly 40 per cent and 47 per cent in dollar terms in the last two years.

She said Comex gold had surged to a record $5,598 in late January before correcting sharply to $4,098 in March due to profit booking and ETF outflows.

Should Investors Buy Gold Now?

Experts suggest strategy should depend on your purpose and time horizon rather than trying to perfectly time the market.

If You Need Jewellery In 3-6 Months

If buying for marriage, gifting or festive needs, gradual buying in tranches may be more practical than waiting for an exact bottom. Jewellery demand may remain softer at higher prices, but cultural demand in India remains strong, according to analysts.

If Investing For Long Term

For long-term investors, SIPs in gold ETFs or gold mutual funds can help average purchase costs during volatile phases.

Kaynat Chainwala, assistance vice-president (commodity research) at Kotak Securities, said volatility should be viewed as an opportunity to build positions gradually rather than a signal to exit.

She noted Indian ETF assets linked to gold have surged sharply over recent years, reflecting a structural shift toward regulated investment formats.

If You Already Hold Gold

If gold already forms a healthy part of your portfolio, experts generally suggest avoiding aggressive chasing after a strong rally. Instead, review allocations and rebalance if exposure has become too high.

Chainwala recommended maintaining a gold allocation of around 8-15 per cent of portfolio assets, depending on individual risk profile.

If You Have No Gold Exposure

For investors with zero allocation, corrections or weak phases may offer opportunities to gradually build exposure rather than entering through a large lump sum at elevated prices.

Why Prices May Still Stay Supported

Despite the consolidation phase, several structural factors continue to support gold prices, including continued central bank buying globally, geopolitical uncertainty and conflict risks, inflation and stagflation concerns, potential shifts in US interest rate expectations, and diversification demand from institutions and households.

Gold Price Outlook

Axis Securities expects domestic gold prices to reach Rs 1,70,000 to Rs 1,85,000 over the next year.

It said prices may retest the $5,300-5,500 range globally over the same period, implying potential upside from current levels.

Should You Consider Silver Too?

Kotak Securities said investors can also consider silver as a tactical addition due to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal. The firm suggested gold remain the core precious metals holding, while silver may be considered as a smaller allocation for investors with a longer time horizon.

Read More