A striking illustration of long-term investing, by Monika Halan, author of Let’s Talk Money, is doing the rounds: an investor who put money into the Sensex every year at its 52-week high for 35 years still managed to turn Rs 35 lakh into over Rs 3 crore. Basis this, Aashish Somaiyaa of WhiteOak Capital AMC, in a a conversation with NDTV Profit, says that timing the market matters far less than staying invested.
What took me hours of work earlier, @claudeai helped me do in minutes.
So, this is India’s unluckiest investor’s story.
He buys the Sensex every year at the 52-week high.
And keeps buying for 35 years.
He is persistent.
He is the unluckiest investor in India.
Because each time… pic.twitter.com/exTfdSrHbf— Monika Halan 🇮🇳 (@monikahalan) April 3, 2026
Somaiyaa emphasises that the impact of timing diminishes significantly with longer investment horizons. While entry points can influence short-term returns, their effect fades over 10–15 years of compounding. “If you are investing for one year, timing matters a lot. But over 10 years, its impact becomes marginal,” he explained.
Even systematic investment plans (SIPs), when executed at the worst possible monthly points, show only minor differences in long-term returns, often limited to fractional changes in CAGR.
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The Psychology Trap Behind Market Timing
So why do investors still try to time markets? According to Somaiyaa, it stems from a behavioural bias—the belief that understanding past market patterns enables prediction of future moves. This, he argues, is a flawed assumption. “Just because you understand the past better doesn’t mean you can forecast the future,” he said. Market history is filled with sharp rallies during bear phases—often triggered by unexpected events—making precise timing nearly impossible.
In volatile markets, Somaiyaa’s advice is straightforward: continue SIPs without interruption. Skipping investments during downturns can hurt long-term returns by missing out on lower-cost averaging.
For lump sum investments, however, he advocates a staggered approach. Rather than investing all at once, deploying capital over a few months allows investors to navigate uncertainty while participating in potential recoveries.
Instead of trying to predict market tops and bottoms, Somaiyaa recommends focusing on asset allocation. A disciplined allocation strategy naturally enforces buying low and selling high across asset classes. “When one asset becomes expensive, you reduce exposure and move to another. It automatically makes you counter-cyclical,” he noted.
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