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Unusual S& P 500 e Mini and oil futures trades before Donald Trump Iran talks post spark profit windfall, echoing Polymarket timing and raising insider concern.
Traders Cash In Big Ahead of Trump’s Iran Statement
Before US President Donald Trump’s social media announcement on ‘productive talks’ with Iran, an unusual thing happened at US trade market. There was a sudden burst of positions in S&P 500 e-Mini futures and oil futures minutes before the announcement, which turned into a gold mine with profits in millions.
The sudden trades during pre-market were unusual and unconventional compared to the low liquidity typical of early trading hours. The notional value of total trades was around $580 million.
This has raised speculations that some of the traders knew beforehand that Trump was going to announce the statement on his social media channel, Truth Social.
He said that the US and Iran had held talks and that he was halting planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
West Texas Intermediate futures dropped nearly 6% following the announcement. Brent oil futures also dropped 10 per cent to come below $100 per barrel.
Iran, however, refuted that any such kind of talks with Trump had happened.
The timing of these trades echoes earlier episodes in recent months, where large and highly profitable bets were placed on prediction platform Polymarket just before US military actions involving Iran and Venezuela.
“It’s difficult to establish direct causality… but it raises questions about who might have been aggressively selling futures at that moment, just 15 minutes before Trump’s post,” a market strategist at a US brokerage told the Financial Times.
Market participants noted that this is one of several such instances recently, where sizable trades have occurred shortly ahead of official US government announcements.
A trader at a major hedge fund said energy consultants had flagged multiple large block trades that appeared unusually well-timed. Meanwhile, another portfolio manager pointed out that the repeated pattern of significant, precisely timed transactions has led to growing frustration among investors.
March 24, 2026, 4:47 PM IST
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