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100 days of US-Israel-Iran war: The US-Israel campaign aimed at regime change & elimination of nuclear infrastructure in Iran has spiralled into a regional war impacting the world
100 days on, the US-Israel-Iran war shows no signs of ending. (Reuters)
The US-Israel war on Iran has reached its 100-day mark, remaining a volatile conflict defined by severe regional devastation, heavy global economic shocks, and a fragile, frequently violated ceasefire.
Initiated under US President Donald Trump, the military campaign aimed at targeted regime change and the elimination of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Instead, it has spiralled into an expansive regional war impacting Lebanon and various Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.
THE KEY MOMENTS: OUTBREAK TO ESCALATION
- February 28, 2026 – Outbreak of War: The United States and Israel launch a coordinated, massive campaign of airstrikes targeting Iran’s security apparatus, nuclear sites, and critical infrastructure. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is assassinated in the opening strikes, leading to the rapid appointment of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as his successor.
- Early March 2026 – Choking the Strait of Hormuz: Iran retaliates by deploying waves of drones and missiles across the region and closing the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime traffic drops drastically from 100 daily transits to an average of just seven, immediately choking off a quarter of global oil trade.
- March 23, 2026 – Escalation of Rhetoric: US President Trump dramatically elevates tensions, threatening that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran continues regional strikes.
- April 7–8, 2026 – The Fragile Ceasefire & Blockade: Pakistan brokers a tentative two-week ceasefire in Islamabad to pause fighting and permit diplomacy. However, the US promptly enforces a rigid naval blockade on Iranian shipping ports.
- April 13–17, 2026 – Expansion into Lebanon: Israel and Lebanon briefly negotiate a separate truce. Despite this, Israel expands its northern campaign, executing widespread bombardments and an ongoing ground invasion into Southern Lebanon to target Hezbollah forces.
- May 2026 – Economic Fractures & Diplomatic Stagnation: Diplomatic talks collapse over the nuclear issue after Trump dismisses Iran’s counter-proposals as “garbage”. Regionally, energy facilities belonging to Aramco and ADNOC suffer extensive drone damage. UAE exits OPEC.
- June 7–8, 2026 – 100-Day Escalation: As the war hits Day 100, the ceasefire effectively disintegrates. Iran fires missiles testing Israeli defenses and targets regional US military hubs in Kuwait and Bahrain. The US military engages the IRGC over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
THE DESTRUCTION IN NUMBERS
According to data compiled 100 days into the conflict by Al Jazeera and regional intelligence outlets, the human and infrastructural toll includes:
Human Casualties: Over 7,000 people have been killed. Geographically, the fatalities stand at 3,593 in Lebanon, 3,468 in Iran, 29 in Gulf States, alongside 26 Israelis and 13 US soldiers.
Displacement: More than 3 million Iranians were displaced in the first fortnight of the war, alongside 1 million Lebanese civilians forced into exile by Israel’s “scorched-earth policy” in the south.
Territorial Shifts: Israeli forces have advanced past the Litani River to the outskirts of Nabatieh, capturing the historic Beaufort Castle and currently occupying nearly 20% of Lebanon’s territory.
Domestic Inflation: The economic toll inside Iran is staggering. The Statistical Center of Iran reported year-on-year general inflation at 84% and food inflation peaking at 130%.
IMPACT ON IRAN: DESTRUCTION, SUCCESSION AND RESISTANCE
The war has inflicted a severe toll on Iran’s leadership, infrastructure, and population, forcing the regime into a survival-driven posture. In the opening days of the war, a joint US-Israel strike assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The regime maintained institutional continuity by swiftly appointing his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new leader. At least 3,468 Iranians have been killed. Bombardments during the first two weeks displaced over three million people and heavily damaged nuclear-linked sites, civilian infrastructure, and energy facilities.
A rigid US naval blockade has choked off more than five-sixths of Iran’s pre-war oil exports. This has caused the national currency to plummet to record lows, exacerbated unemployment, and triggered severe domestic inflation. Ironically, the external threat has temporarily suppressed the domestic winter protest movements. The political and military leadership has leveraged national resistance rhetoric to consolidate control. Intelligence reports indicate that Iran still retains nearly 90% of its long-range missile storage facilities.
REGIONAL SPILLOVER: THE CRISIS SPREADS
The conflict has drawn multiple neighbouring nations into the line of fire, fundamentally altering the Middle East’s security architecture.
Lebanon: Israel expanded the war into Lebanon to target Hezbollah, killing at least 3,593 people—surpassing Iran’s own direct casualties. The offensive has displaced over one million Lebanese citizens and systematically razed southern border villages.
The Gulf Under Fire: Every Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state has faced retaliatory drone or missile strikes. The UAE absorbed the heaviest hits on its critical energy infrastructure. Additionally, drone strikes targeting Dubai International Airport prompted a projected second-quarter hotel occupancy collapse from 80% to 10%.
OPEC Fractures: To mitigate risks and assert fiscal autonomy, the UAE dramatically exited OPEC, leading to tumbling regional production and a World Bank growth forecast downgrade for the GCC from 4.4% to 1.3%.
GLOBAL FALLOUT: SUPPLY CHAINS, ENERGY NETWORKS DISRUPTED
The international fallout has severely impacted global supply chains, energy networks, and ordinary consumers.
Choked Shipping Lanes: Iran’s closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz has paralysed global maritime trade. Daily vessel transits plummeted from roughly 100 before the war to an average of just seven, trapping 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.
Energy Shock: Depleting global oil reserves have raised critical fears of a supply crisis, threatening to push oil prices back over $100 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.
Market Volatility: While US tech markets have been partially insulated by an artificial intelligence boom, European and Asian indices have contracted sharply due to their immense reliance on Gulf energy. Sovereign debt markets have suffered heavily, pushing US 30-year Treasury yields to their highest marks since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Geopolitical Realignment: Regional security guarantees have frayed. GCC states feel exposed after sustaining strikes on their own soil, while European powers are increasingly aiming for greater strategic independence from Washington’s unpredictable foreign policy. Concurrently, Beijing and Moscow continue to shield Tehran at the United Nations, treating the war as a proxy conflict over the wider international order.
Global Inflationary Shock: Energy deficits have driven consumer prices skyward. In the US, the consumer price index rose to an annual rate of 3.8%. The average US household has accumulated an estimated $750 in war-induced living expenses, forcing a massive pullback in retail spending.
Financial Market Strain: Government bond yields have surged worldwide as investors price in long-term inflation. While a historic artificial intelligence semiconductor boom has kept the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs, underlying asset classes remain highly volatile. Higher jet fuel prices also forced airlines like United to raise fares by 20%, while budget-carrier Spirit Airlines filed for complete closure.
NO PEACE IN SIGHT: WHAT IS THE STATUS OF TALKS?
While a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire was implemented on April 8 to allow for diplomacy, the peace is highly unstable. Discussions remain bogged down over Washington’s demands for Iran to permanently abandon its nuclear programme, the fate of billions in frozen Iranian assets, and the parallel war in Lebanon.
Peace talks are hovering near total collapse due to deeply entrenched conditions on both sides:
- Nuclear Program: US and allies want a total cessation of uranium enrichment, which Iran refuses to accept, citing sovereign civilian rights.
- Strait of Hormuz: US and allies insist on unrestricted, free global maritime navigation. Iran has been demanding regulatory control, including maritime tolls.
- Sanctions: US and allies are offering only phased, limited, or conditional economic relief. Iran wants an immediate and unconditional total removal.
- Regional Influence: US and allies want Iran to cut military ties with Hezbollah and local proxies. Iran, however, maintains alignment, viewing regional depth as defensive.
Fighting has never truly stopped. In recent flare-ups, U.S. Central Command intercepted multiple Iranian attack drones and ballistic missiles targeting international shipping and regional allies like Bahrain and Kuwait, launching retaliatory strikes on Iranian coastal radar sites.
The grinding status quo has triggered widespread domestic discontent. Public polls reveal that 61% to 66% of Americans now disapprove of the military intervention, pushing President Trump’s approval ratings to their lowest point since his return to office.
Domestically, the war’s mounting costs have eroded political backing for US President Donald Trump. A CBS News poll revealed a 66% public disapproval rating regarding his management of the conflict, and the US House voted 215-208 to curb presidential authority to prolong the war. Despite the clear financial drain—estimated at over $890 million daily—both factions remain heavily prepared for a swift return to open, intensive hostilities if negotiations disintegrate entirely.
FROM IRAN TO INDIA: HOW HAS THE WAR IMPACTED NEW DELHI?
The ongoing US-Iran war has heavily impacted India, primarily triggering a severe domestic energy crisis, stretching macroeconomic indicators, and disrupting vital trade corridors. Despite achieving a robust GDP growth of 7.8% in the March quarter, India remains highly vulnerable to prolonged regional instability.
India is highly vulnerable because it relies on the Middle East for over 85% of its crude oil, 60% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG), and 91% of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane since March 1, 2026, has created systemic energy bottlenecks. Within days of the war breaking out, domestic LPG prices spiked, with black-market prices reaching up to ₹4,000 per cylinder. This triggered severe public protests across the country. After four years of price stability, the government had to increase metro fuel prices. To reduce demand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly urged citizens to curb fuel consumption and adopt work-from-home models. Extreme shortages forced hotels and restaurants to temporarily switch to firewood and biomass. Demand for home induction cooktops on retail sites like Amazon skyrocketed over thirtyfold.
The war has pushed global crude oil benchmarks past $100–$111 per barrel, heavily pressuring India’s financial stability. The Indian Rupee depreciated sharply against the US Dollar, nearing historic lows of 97. India’s foreign exchange reserves plummeted by over $11 billion to meet the rising import bills. Consumer goods giants—including Hindustan Unilever, Godrej, and Dabur—have rolled out price hikes or shrunk product packaging (shrinkflation). High-exposure sectors like aviation, steel, and logistics face major margin crunches due to spiking freight and insurance costs. Global risk-off sentiment led Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) to pull out a massive $12.58 billion from Indian equities in a single month.
Spikes in petroleum and input costs have hurt manufacturing and agriculture. Key export sectors, such as the Indian leather industry, report frozen recruitment due to containers being stuck at sea for months. Over 9 million Indian workers reside in the Gulf region, generating a massive baseline of remittances. Prolonged instability threatens the safety of these workers and risks cutting down the crucial multi-billion dollar financial inflows that support households, particularly in states like Kerala.
To navigate the crisis, India has balanced strict neutrality with defensive economic measures. The finance ministry allocated a $6.2 billion Economic Stabilization Fund to absorb supply chain shocks. New Delhi negotiated an exclusive agreement with Tehran allowing Indian-flagged vessels or ships heading to Indian ports to continue sailing safely through the Strait of Hormuz. India leveraged a 30-day US Treasury waiver to purchase discounted Russian crude oil already at sea, bypassing standard sanctions. The government signed emergency agreements to import long-term LPG and natural gas from Canada, Australia, and the US Gulf Coast to reduce its reliance on the Middle East.
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At the news desk for 20 years, the story of her life has revolved around finding pun, facts while reporting, on radio, heading a daily newspaper desk, teaching mass media students to now editing speci…Read More
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