damascus10 minutes agoAuthor: Tejashwi Thakur
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There is an atmosphere of celebration in Syria’s capital Damascus. The 54 year old fortress of the Assad family collapsed in just a few days. President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow. In Syria, where the Assad family once dominated, today there is no one left to be remembered. The signs of Bashar and his father are being erased everywhere.
The rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has taken control of the capital. America and its allies are welcoming the change of power to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the branch of Al Qaeda that they fought for years. The Middle East once again stands at the crossroads of peace and unrest.
This coup has left many unresolved questions before the world. On some such important questions, we talked to senior defense expert Qamar Aga and senior research fellow of Indian World Council, Fajjur Rehman Siddiqui.
1) Was the spark of the Arab Spring still burning?
The Arab Spring that started in Tunisia in 2010 led to regime change in many Middle East countries. By 2011, the flames of the movement reached southern Syria and soon spread across the country. However, Bashar al-Assad was successful in saving his power in Syria.
But the rebellion that started on 27 November 2024 did not give them a chance to recover. The rebellion was so intense that there was a change of power in Syria in just 11 days. In such a situation, the question arises whether this was an extension of the Arab Spring or a new kind of movement.
Qamar Aga-
The Arab Spring had ended then. His aim was to bring democracy. Organizations like ISIS and Al Qaeda had destroyed it only then. However, Syria has been struggling with continuous unrest since 2011.
Fajjur Rehman Siddiqui-
This is a continuation of the Arab Spring. Syria was still stable because Hamas and Hezbollah continued to fight Israel, giving Iran the advantage. As soon as both of them became weak, Iran retreated and Russia got entangled in Ukraine. In such a situation, this revolution got a place to emerge.
2) New challenge or opportunity for Israel in the Middle East?
Israel welcomed the end of Bashar’s regime. Prime Minister Netanyahu himself called it a historic day for the Middle East. In the last one and a half years, Israel eliminated Hamas from Gaza. A ceasefire was signed with Hezbollah in Lebanon and now Bashar’s rule in Syria has ended. As soon as the rebel fighters reached Damascus, Israel moved its steps towards the Golan Heights.
However, it is not yet clear what Israel’s relations will be like with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has captured Damascus.
Qamar Aga-
Syria is in dire straits economically. Now any new government there will be able to survive only if it continues to get financial help from America or Israel. America, which was earlier calling HTS a terrorist group, is now using words like insurgent for it. In such a situation, there may be an opportunity for Israel.
Fajjur Rehman Siddiqui-
The success of the rebellion in Syria has created new opportunities for Israel. At present, Iran does not have the ability to fight directly. Now Israel can directly compete with the surrounding countries if needed.
3) Syria’s regime change a new crisis in the Middle East?
The Spring that started in Tunisia quickly overthrew many rulers in the Middle East. In such a situation, this successful rebellion in Syria has once again created fear of unrest in the Middle East. According to the report of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, more than 92 lakh Indians work in six countries of the Middle East, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE). If this spark spreads then India may also have to face a big challenge.
Qamar Aga-
If this rebellion spreads from Syria to Iraq, it could cause trouble in the Middle East. More than 90 lakh of our people work in 6 countries there. These people send large amounts of foreign exchange to India.
Fajjur Rehman Siddiqui-
Now the possibility of this rebellion spreading further is very less. UAE is safe because of Abraham Accord. Saudi’s focus is more on economic progress.
Let us tell you that Abraham Accord is the agreement through which relations between UAE, Bahrain and Israel were officially normalized in September 2020. Under the agreement, UAE and Bahrain started political relations with Israel.
4) Is the path to Kurdistan easy for the Kurds or a new threat?
The Kurdish community spread across Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Armenia and Iran has been agitating for a separate country of Kurdistan for a long time. Because of this it has to face constant repression. In such a situation, has the change of power in Syria brought a new light of hope for the Kurds or is it a new sign of danger for them?
Qamar Aga-
Not only the Kurdish forces, other minority groups there are just taking stock of the situation.
Fajjur Rehman Siddiqui-
Kurdish forces will become neutral now. At present there is an atmosphere of restlessness and they are adopting a wait and watch policy.
5) Can a new threat like ISIS emerge?
The Middle East has been struggling for peace since the death of Saddam Hussein. The birth of ISIS served as gasoline for this already smoldering region. In such a situation, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham will be successful in establishing peace here or it will start a new cycle of conflict and repression in the region. Is there a danger of the formation of a new violent group from the Syrian military itself?
Qamar Aga-
The Syrian Army was broken from within. Many senior officers were working on a salary of just $40 (Rs 3,394). Now most of these officers can associate themselves with HTS. However, militancy will definitely get a boost here. The rebels came together only to remove Assad, now it may be difficult for them to manage power.
Fajjur Rehman Siddiqui-
The chances of forming a new group are very less. This rebellion was successful because the morale of the Syrian Army was broken. All he had to do was save Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian Army had become hollow from within.
Bashar’s brutal crackdown on children sparks civil war
Bashar’s rule in Syria was based on the legacy of his father Hafez al-Assad, but he was never able to replace his father. When Bashar, who was studying medicine in London, became president in 2000, he resorted to violence. In the midst of the Arab Spring in 2011, Assad kidnapped schoolchildren to crush protests. These children were tortured in the notorious secret prison of Damascus. After this, a civil war started against Bashar, which now ended with his overthrow.
The world spoke about the fall of Assad government in Syria…
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