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PM Modi took oath as Prime Minister for the third time on June 9, 2024.
If Lok Sabha elections are held today, the BJP-led NDA may get 326 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. According to India Today’s ‘Mood of the Nation’ (MOTN) survey, the NDA is still in a strong position. However, there are also signs of decline in its popularity.
If elections are held now, BJP can get 261 seats. NDA had won 293 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. BJP’s own seats had reduced from 303 to 240.
26 seats less than January survey
NDA is now in its 12th year. In the last MOTN survey conducted in January, NDA was estimated to get 352 seats.
This time the estimate is 26 seats less than the previous survey. There is no possibility of any significant increase in the seats of India Block as compared to the January survey. In this survey, the Congress led alliance has been estimated to get 185 seats, whereas in January it was estimated to get 182 seats.
India Today Group has been conducting this survey for almost two decades. It happens twice a year (January and August). The August 2026 survey has been conducted by C-VOTER.
In terms of vote share, the NDA is likely to see a slight decline (45.1%) from January’s MOTN (47%). This is the lowest since the August 2025 survey, which had projected a vote share of 46.7%. NDA had got 44% votes in the 2024 elections.
Modi still first choice in PM race
According to MOTN survey, PM Narendra Modi still remains the first choice of the people in the race for the post of Prime Minister. In the survey, 48.7% people said him as their first choice. Whereas, Rahul Gandhi is at second place with 27.1%. The name of Cockroach Janata Party founder Abhijeet Deepke (1.3%) is also included in this list.
47% people believed that Ram temple dispute will have a negative impact – survey
According to the survey, out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, ‘India’ block is expected to get 41 seats and NDA 38 seats.
Talking about vote share, NDA can get 42% votes, which is a decline of 5% compared to the January survey. Whereas ‘India’ block is expected to get 40% votes, which is 2% less than January.
On the Ram temple donation theft controversy in Ayodhya, 47% people believe that it has had a negative impact on both the Modi and Yogi governments. Whereas 8% people believed that it had an impact only on the Centre, while 7% believed that it had an impact only on the UP government.
Elections in 7 states in 2027, 22% voters Gen-G
Next year, assembly elections are to be held in 7 states – Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur and Goa. Gen-G i.e. voters between 18 to 29 years can play an important role in these elections.
There are two big reasons behind this. First, the Gen-G movement took place in Delhi in July, which sparked a new debate about the political inclinations of the youth. Secondly, the shocking results of Bankipur in Bihar and Datia by-elections in Madhya Pradesh, which have intensified the discussion on the electoral role of youth.
According to political analysts, along with sections like women, backward classes, farmers and Dalits, Gen-Z is also becoming an important voter group in the electoral equation. About 22% of the voters in these 7 election states are in the age group of 18 to 29 years. In such a situation, youth vote can change the electoral equation of any party.
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