‘The situation is under control, but the danger is not over yet.’ After the devastation in Nepal, this statement of CM Samrat Chaudhary has given immediate relief to the people of 21 districts of Bihar. But at the same time he has also warned about the challenges ahead. Is disaster going to come again in Nepal, if it comes then what will happen to Bihar, what is going on in Ganga-Gandak-Kosi, we will understand; I don’t understand… Is there a possibility of floods again in Nepal? Scientists have not ruled out further danger. Experts have warned that the valley’s unstable slopes and a partially collapsed glacier could trigger another flood situation in the coming days due to new debris flows. Nepal’s Home Minister Sudan Gurung said that the Lhende river has not been completely cleaned yet. The International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) said that due to cloud cover, there has been difficulty in satellite monitoring of the area. At the same time, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, climate researcher and professor at Kathmandu University, said, ‘Initially there was concern that another big lake could form upstream, but so far there is not enough evidence to confirm the existence of such a lake.’ Kayastha said, ‘The risk still remains. Rising temperatures increase the possibility of melting of glaciers, breaking of ice and rocks and avalanches in the Himalayas. But we cannot say exactly where the next incident will happen. If the glacier breaks in Nepal, then why is Bihar in danger? The water of all the rivers of Nepal, located at a height of about 400 feet (above sea level) from Bihar, travels to Bihar only. Understand this from the 3 routes of rivers… Route-1: Nepal’s Narayani to Champaran, Saran destroyed Route-2: Nepal’s Saptkoshi to Saharsa-Supaul area affected Route-3: Nepal’s water also comes to Bihar via UP, which means that whether there is an accident in the north of Nepal or in the west, all the water will reach Bihar only. In such a situation, the movement of Nepal’s rivers has more impact on Bihar. Now understand from the map below… the route of the rivers… will the situation worsen in Bihar if the second glacier breaks? Absolutely. The latest situation is that after the flood in Rasuwa district of Nepal on Wednesday, all 36 gates of Gandak Barrage of Bihar have been opened. On an average, more than 1.5 lakh cusecs of water is being released every hour from Valmikinagar Barrage. According to the Central Water Commission, waves up to 3 meters high may arise in Gandak, there is also a possibility of flash flood. Now understand for 2 reasons, how the situation can worsen… 1. Ganga-Gandak is in spate, water pressure is increasing. According to the Water Resources Department of Bihar Government, till 4 pm on August 27, Gandak in Dumariyaghat of Gopalganj, Ganga in Patna, Budhi Gandak in Khagaria, Ghaghra in Darauli of Siwan, Kosi river in Kursela of Katihar have crossed the danger mark. Due to the water from Nepal, the flow of water in Gandak and Ganga is increasing. Due to water in Ganga and Budhi Gandak in Khagaria, more than 50 thousand houses in 20 panchayats have been submerged in water. If another glacier breaks in Nepal, the situation in Bihar will worsen. Because the water in the rivers has increased a lot recently. If water comes further, it will only cause destruction. CM Samrat Chaudhary said after inspection on August 27, ‘The danger has not gone away yet. If there is God’s grace, everything will be fine. 2. Rain alert has been issued in Bihar and Nepal for the next 5 days. Rain alert has been issued in Nepal and Bihar for the next 5 days i.e. till 2nd September. According to the Meteorological Department, there is an alert of heavy rain in Bihar today i.e. on 28th August. At the same time, there has been a warning of heavy rain in Nepal. However, intermittent light rain has been warned in Nepal and Bihar from August 29 to September 2. If the forecast of the Meteorological Department proves to be correct, then the people living on the banks of Gandak, Kosi and Ganga in Bihar may have to face a lot of problems. …but 2 things of relief, first – According to the Water Resources Department of Bihar Government, the water level of all 22 rivers of Nepal is below the danger mark till 5 pm on 27th August. The special thing is that Trishuli i.e. Narayani and Bhotekoshi i.e. Saptakoshi rivers are flowing 4 and 3 feet below the danger mark respectively. Meaning there is not much water in the rivers there right now. Even if there is a little rain, the rivers will not overflow, provided the glacier or cloud burst does not occur. Second- According to the Water Resources Department, the upstream of Gandak Barrage is 353.770 feet and downstream is 350.930 feet. Which is about 8 feet less than the prescribed standard of 362 feet. This means that currently up to 8 feet more water can be stored at the barrage. The slight difference (2.84 feet) in water levels upstream and downstream indicates that the dam gates are open and there is not much pressure on the dam. Meaning the speed of water is normal and controlled.
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