If everything goes well, in the next Lok Sabha elections i.e. 2029, Bihar will have 60 Lok Sabha MPs instead of 40. The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council has prepared the draft for dividing the 10 Lok Sabha seats of the state into three parts. The central government can call a special session of Parliament this month. In which the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, Delimitation (Amendment) Bill and Union Territory Law (Amendment) Bill will be passed to increase the Lok Sabha seats. Women reservation will be implemented through these. Which are the 10 seats of Bihar which will be divided? Why will it happen, how much will BJP benefit from it. Will know, without understanding… Question-1: What is in the report of EAC-PM? Answer: To implement women’s reservation in the Parliament and Legislative Assemblies of the country, the Central Government can once again bring a delimitation bill in this month i.e. the last week of October and the first week of November. In which there is a provision to increase the Lok Sabha seats from 543 to 850 seats. The government is trying to get two-thirds majority i.e. 362 out of 543 MPs to pass this Constitution Amendment Bill. Meanwhile, in the last week of June, the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM) has prepared a new working paper draft. Council members Dr. Shamika Ravi and Dr. Mudit Kapoor have given a mathematical formula in the draft to increase the 543 Lok Sabha seats to 824. In which it has been suggested that no changes should be made in 374 seats out of 543. 111 seats should be divided into three parts and 59 seats should be divided into two parts. In this, there is a proposal to increase the 40 Lok Sabha seats of Bihar to 60. It has been said in the new draft that to increase the new seats, the 10 Lok Sabha seats of the state, Patna Sahib, Patliputra, Darbhanga, Saran, Begusarai, Arrah, Madhubani, Jhanjharpur, Khagaria and Munger, should be divided into 3 parts. The remaining 30 Lok Sabha seats should be kept as they are. Question-2: Why did the Council give the formula to divide these 10 seats into 3 parts? Answer: The Economic Advisory Council claims that this division will increase the voting percentage and people will get facilities. According to the council, the level of urbanization is high in seats like Patna Sahib, Begusarai and Munger. Meaning the urban population is more. Rural areas are also connected. When these will be divided into 3 parts, then urban and rural voters will vote on the basis of their respective preferences. They will benefit. Lok Sabha seats like Darbhanga, Madhubani, Jhanjharpur and Khagaria are geographically large and have their own very strong social fabric of upper castes, EBCs, Muslims and Mahadalits. At present, due to large seats, political parties are not able to reach everyone. Women are not able to vote much. Breaking them into three parts will increase the turnout of women voters. 7 grounds for distribution of seats have been mentioned in the draft… The Advisory Council has said that in order to technically correct this formula and to save it from controversies, the voting percentage, social equations and trends of regional linguistic groups of the Lok Sabha elections from 2009 to 2024 have been studied closely, so that after delimitation, there is no resentment among any section about the reduction in political share. Question-3: Which party will benefit from this delimitation in Bihar? Answer: Nothing can be said directly as of now. Because only the name of the Lok Sabha seat to be divided has come, it is not clear which area will be included in which. But it is certain that if we look at today’s political situation and equation, the BJP lead NDA will benefit a lot. RJD gives tough competition in 5 out of 10 seats: Begusarai, Patliputra, Arrah, Darbhanga and Madhubani. It is more likely that his land will be removed very cleverly in the name of delimitation. Understand it in a sequential manner like this… Patna Sahib: Strong fort of BJP, seats will increase due to division. Patna Sahib Lok Sabha seat with 22.92 lakh voters is considered one of the biggest strongholds of Kayastha community across the country. The social fabric of this seat is so strong in favor of BJP that no party can stand in front of it here. In this Kayastha dominated seat, there are more than 30% general caste voters (about 4.5 lakh Kayastha, 3.5 lakh Bhumihar-Rajput-Brahmin). The population of around 3 lakhs of Sahu, Gupta and other Vaishya castes further strengthens the BJP equation. In this Lok Sabha area which has 6 assembly seats, only two seats, Fatuha and Bakhtiyarpur, are given a tough competition by the Grand Alliance, especially RJD. Here it is in a fighting position with the help of Yadav-Muslim alliance, but the non-Yadav OBC and EBC communities act as a shield for the BJP. Patliputra: If Yadav dominated areas are divided, RJD will be out of the fight. Patliputra is the most discussed seat. This seat, which came into existence after the delimitation in 2008, has equal urban and rural population. This seat with about 20 lakh voters is considered a Yadav dominated seat. Here the maximum number of voters of this community is around 4.5 lakh. This is the reason why both the alliances field only Yadav candidates. At second place, Bhumihar voters are around 3 lakh. After that, Kurmi and Kushwaha voters are around 2.5 lakh. Muslim population is also fine. This is the reason why there is a close contest between RJD and BJP. So far, in the 4 elections held on this seat, RJD has won once (2024) and NDA has won thrice (2009, 2014, 2019). Begusarai: Left and RJD may lose ground. The politics of Begusarai completely revolves around the Bhumihar caste. According to media reports, every third voter is from this society. This is the largest Bhumihar-dominated seat in the state. The second largest voter section on this seat is from the Muslim community, whose number is about 12%. After that the number of Kurmi and Kushwaha (especially Dhanuk and Mahato) voters is decisive. Among the backward castes, the population of Yadavs is more than 1.5 lakh, which is inclined towards RJD. Here the Left has a stronger hold than RJD. Experts on delimitation say that the interference of the state government and the central government in the distribution of areas is fair. In such a situation, it is more possible that Muslim voters may be shifted from here to there. Which can be taken advantage of in the election battle. Munger: Agada and EBC alliance in favor of NDA will be strengthened by division. The total number of voters in Munger Lok Sabha is more than 20 lakhs. This seat has the highest population and political influence of Bhumihars. According to estimates, more than 20% voters come from Bhumihar community. After that Yadav is the second largest voter group. Around 11-12%. Who is the base voter of RJD. Then Dhanuk, Kurmi and Kushwaha are the decisive vote banks. Especially the population of Dhanuk and Kurmi castes is more than 15%. Due to NDA’s Bhumihar-Lav-Kush and Dhanuk formula, it has the upper hand here. Darbhanga: Will the Yadav-Muslim alliance break in the delimitation? Muslim community has the highest number in this Lok Sabha seat with 17.81 lakh voters. More than about 20%. However, due to the anti-Muslim equation, BJP is winning the elections here for 4 consecutive times. After Muslims, there are Maithil Brahmins. About 12%. After this there are about 10% Yadav voters. Saran: If Diara area is divided, RJD may face problems. This seat, where Rajputs and Yadavs are fighting, is very close to Lalu family. After the delimitation in 2008, Lalu Yadav has won the elections here only once in 2009. Since then Lalu family is continuously losing elections. The largest population here is of Yadav voters, about 20%. After that Rajput community is around 18%. The alliance of Vaishya and Rajputs is not allowing Lalu Yadav to win. However, there is a very close collision. There is a possibility that Yadav voters can be divided by dividing Diara area into different parts in delimitation. If this happens then Lalu family will almost lose this seat. Ara: If 3 Assemblies are separated then the strength of the Grand Alliance will be halved. In this Lok Sabha seat where there is a fight between forward and backward, there are around 8 lakh upper caste voters, out of which the highest number is around 4 lakh from the Rajput community. Yadavs are the largest voter group among the backward castes, which are around 3.5 lakh. After this, about 1.5 lakh Muslims. Due to Yadav-Muslim alliance, RJD gives tough competition to BJP here. Madhubani: NDA will get more benefit if Muslim population is divided. If statistics are to be believed, every fourth voter here is Muslim. Their numbers are quite high in assembly constituencies like Bisfi and Jale, which are the main base of Grand Alliance politics. Among the upper castes, Maithil Brahmins constitute the largest number at about 12%. After that Yadav is more than 9%. Current BJP MP Ashok Kumar Yadav (son of Hukumdev Narayan Yadav) himself comes from this community, due to which the Yadav vote bank here gets divided between the NDA and the Grand Alliance.
Source link
[ad_3]
गिरिराज, ललन और रूडी की सीटों में क्यों होगा बंटवारा: बिहार की कौन-कौन सी लोकसभा सीटें 3 हिस्सों में बंटेंगी, तेजस्वी-मोदी किसे फायदा – Bihar News
