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The 60-day agreement between America and Iran in June ended on Monday. Its purpose was to stop the ongoing war between the two countries and to resolve the dispute regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Even after the deadline, neither was any final agreement reached nor did America launch a new major attack on Iran.
During the 60 days, Trump said several times that if talks failed, America was fully prepared for military action. Therefore, it was believed that as soon as the deadline was over, America could launch a major attack on Iran again.
Trump’s stance appears to be changing just before the deadline. “We’re keeping it low-key,” Trump said in an interview with Axios. That is, at present, instead of a direct major military attack, America wants to maintain pressure on Iran through economic pressure, sanctions, naval blockade and limited diplomatic contact.
That is, Trump’s current bet is to put more economic pressure on Iran and allow it to face its own economic destruction, rather than immediately plunge the US into a major war again.
What does Trump want to achieve by stopping the attack?
The most important thing to understand Trump’s current strategy is that America is not considering the war as over.
US Vice President JD Vance said on Saturday that the conflict is not over and the US is using all three methods: diplomatic, economic and military.
However, Trump feels that currently increasing economic pressure on Iran may be more effective than a military attack.
The US naval blockade has further increased Iran’s economic difficulties. Trump believes that if Iran does not remain engaged in war, it will have to face its true economic situation. Such as ruined infrastructure, weak economy, inflation and lack of money.
That is, America’s bet is to stop the war and allow Iran to weaken.
US officials believe that if the war continues, the Iranian government may blame the conflict for its economic troubles. But when there is no war, then the public and the government will have to face the economic crisis directly.
That is why Trump currently wants to give time to economic pressure instead of military attack.
The poverty rate in Iran is estimated to exceed 40% this year.
Why did Trump have to change strategy against Iran?
Trump started a war against Iran along with Israel in February. It was initially hoped that the conflict would not last long, but it dragged on for several months.
Now America faces two types of pressure. On one hand it wants to achieve its military goals against Iran, on the other hand the increasing cost of a long war is also becoming a concern for it.
Trump has consistently said that Iran’s weak economy is America’s greatest strength. In an interview, Trump had said that America has two options – either allow Iran to collapse economically or launch a major military attack on it. At present, Trump seems to be trying the first option.
However, this does not mean that America has ended the conflict. According to Reuters, the Trump government is considering imposing new sanctions on Chinese refineries that buy Iranian oil.
Apart from this, there are also preparations to take action against Chinese banks and those institutions doing transactions with Iran, which are accused of helping Iran in evading sanctions. This means that even though the attack has stopped, the pressure has not reduced.
Hormuz Strait becomes the biggest bargaining issue
The Strait of Hormuz has become the biggest stake in the current conflict between America and Iran.
A large part of the world’s oil passes through this sea route. Therefore, any kind of obstruction regarding the Strait of Hormuz can affect not only America and Iran, but the oil market and maritime trade of the entire world.
Iran is in talks with Oman on this issue. On August 9, Iranian officials said that the agreement with Oman had reached the final stage.
But Tehran also made it clear that the agreement with Oman does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz will be immediately opened to international ships.
Iran wants the US to first end the naval blockade, lift sanctions and compensate for war losses.
That is, America wants the sea lanes and movement of ships to be normal, whereas Iran is linking it to American concessions.
For this reason the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a sea route. It has become the biggest bargaining weapon between the two countries.
America is paying a heavy price for the war
According to sources, America has used a large number of long-range missiles in the five-month long war with Iran. These include ATACMS and Precision Strike Missile.
Two sources claimed that America has used almost the entire stockpile of these weapons, although they did not give the exact number.
The US has also lost at least 45 MQ-9 Reaper drones during the war. This is about 25% of its total fleet.
According to the US Air Force, the price of a Reaper drone can range from $30 million to $50 million, depending on its equipment. According to the Washington Post, the total cost of these losses could exceed $1.3 billion.
These drones were used specifically for surveillance and attacks around the Strait of Hormuz. Due to their low altitude and slow speed, they became targets of Iranian forces and Iran-backed groups.
Before the war started, America had about 185 Reaper drones. Of these, 165 were with the Air Force and 20 with the Marine Corps. In May, senior US Air Force officer Lieutenant General David Tabor told the Senate that the Air Force has about 135 Reaper drones left.
The Pentagon is already working on a plan to phase out Reaper drones and replace them with new low-cost armed drones.
Long range missiles also cost more than 1 million dollars. They have also been used extensively in the Ukraine war.
If America’s stockpile of these weapons decreases, its military capability may be affected in future major attacks on Iran or against other rivals like Russia and China.
However, another US official said that America can re-supply these weapons from its military stockpile around the world.
What are Iran’s demands?
America wants to prepare Iran for agreement by increasing economic pressure. But Iran is also using the options available to it. The Strait of Hormuz is the biggest example of this. Iran has put forward 6 demands to America for opening Hormuz.
That is, America is using economic sanctions as a weapon of pressure, while Iran is using its hold on the world’s most important maritime oil route as a tool of pressure.
This is the reason that despite there being scope for dialogue between the two parties, the path to agreement is not easy. ——————————– Also read this news related to Iran…
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