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From economic pressure to backchannel diplomacy, CNN-News18 decodes how Pakistan was pushed into mediating a fragile truce, and what it gains from it.
Pakistan PM Sharif is learnt to have conveyed to his cabinet that negotiations were imperative, with talks scheduled in Islamabad on April 10 seen as a make-or-break moment. (File image: PTI)
What appears on the surface as a diplomatic breakthrough in the US–Iran conflict is, in reality, a story of compulsion rather than choice for Pakistan’s leadership. As a fragile ceasefire took shape, Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership — Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir — found themselves with little room to manoeuvre, driven by economic vulnerability, geopolitical pressure, and domestic instability.
CNN-News18 has learnt that Islamabad’s role in brokering the deal was shaped as much by external pressure from Washington as by internal compulsions tied to Pakistan’s economic survival.
Why Pakistan Could Not Afford A Prolonged Conflict
Pakistan’s deep economic exposure to the Gulf region made the fallout of a prolonged US–Iran conflict untenable. The country imports the bulk of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that is still seeing disruptions. Any sustained closure or instability would have sharply driven up global fuel prices, with Pakistan already facing the prospect of price increases of nearly 20 per cent.
Such a spike would have had cascading effects. Higher fuel costs would trigger austerity measures, deepen inflation, and further strain an already fragile economy. More critically, it would risk disrupting remittance flows from over 5 million Pakistanis working in the Gulf — inflows that are roughly equivalent to the country’s total export earnings.
For the Sharif government, already operating on a thin political mandate, and for a military-backed establishment led by Munir, the stakes were existential. Another balance-of-payments crisis could derail ongoing IMF support and trigger immediate domestic unrest.
Washington’s Push And Pakistan’s Reluctant Role
According to inputs accessed by CNN-News18the United States was keen on securing a pause in hostilities without being seen as directly negotiating with Iran. This is where Pakistan’s strategic positioning became critical.
Iran was more likely to trust a proposal routed through a neighbouring Muslim-majority country with established links to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). US officials, therefore, leaned heavily on Islamabad to act as an intermediary.
Sources indicate that Pakistan’s role was not voluntary diplomacy but a result of sustained pressure from Washington. Munir was engaged in intense, overnight backchannel communication with senior US and Iranian interlocutors, including US Vice President JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
A Crisis Pakistan Could Not Ignore
Beyond economic stress, the war’s potential spillover posed a direct security threat to Pakistan. Refugee inflows from Iran, instability in Balochistan, and the risk of prolonged energy shortages were already being factored into Islamabad’s internal assessments.
Prime Minister Sharif is learnt to have conveyed to his cabinet that negotiations were imperative, with talks scheduled in Islamabad on April 10 seen as a make-or-break moment. Any collapse of the ceasefire framework would likely be blamed squarely on the Sharif–Munir leadership, potentially destabilising their current power arrangement.
Nobel Talk And Strategic Optics
The successful brokering of the ceasefire has allowed Pakistan to position itself as an unexpected diplomatic player. Sections of the Pakistani media have already begun floating the idea of a Nobel Peace Prize for the country’s leadership, a narrative that adds to the regime’s domestic legitimacy.
However, intelligence assessments in India suggest a more cautious reading of the development.
India’s Assessment: Pressure, Optics, And Strategic Gains
Top Indian intelligence sources indicate that Washington effectively pressured a cash-strapped Islamabad to front the deal, allowing the Trump administration to claim “peace through strength” without engaging Tehran directly.
From this perspective, Pakistan’s mediation is seen as largely performative — buying time for the United States while offering General Munir political cover at home.
Officials also point to a familiar pattern in Pakistan’s military leadership, where immediate institutional or personal gains take precedence over long-term strategic outcomes.
By projecting itself as a bridge between Washington and Tehran, Islamabad is likely seeking to secure future economic benefits — including potential US assistance and stronger ties with Gulf nations.
What Pakistan Gains, And Risks
The diplomatic role could translate into tangible advantages. Closer engagement with Iran’s security establishment during the crisis may lead to tighter coordination on issues such as Baloch militant activity and the security of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) assets.
At the same time, the move carries risks. Any failure of the ceasefire, or a perception that Pakistan overplayed its hand, could quickly reverse the gains and expose the leadership to both domestic and international criticism.
For now, Islamabad has managed to position itself at the centre of a critical geopolitical moment. But as the fragile truce holds, or unravels, the real test of Pakistan’s gamble is only just beginning.
April 09, 2026, 4:30 PM IST
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