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The monsoon has arrived eight days before its normal date of onset on June 1, and is expected to bring above-normal rains during the next four-month season
The southwest monsoon is extremely crucial for India’s agrarian economy, since it provides over 75 per cent of the annual rains over India in just four months from June to September. (News18)
The southwest monsoon, which brings over 75 per cent of the annual rainfall over India, has made its onset over the Kerala coast, marking its earliest arrival in last 16 years. The last it arrived this early was in 2009, hitting the Indian coast on May 23.
This follows heavy rains across the southern peninsula with Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and most parts of Karnataka under a wet spell since last week. According to MeT, the widespread rains are likely to continue over Kerala-Mahe and Karnataka till May 27-29. Heavy rains are also forecasted to continue over Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema over the next five days, with alert for extremely heavy rains especially on May 25 and 26.
Normally, the monsoon makes its onset over the southern coast on June 1. However, the actual date depends on the prevailing conditions in the atmosphere and the sea. This year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) expected an early arrival around May 27 (+/-4 days) since the conditions were quite favourable.
However, it arrived even before that, precisely eight days before its normal date of arrival. While an early onset does not necessarily indicate how much rainfall the country will receive overall, it does bring good news for the farmers who are preparing their fields for sowing rain-fed Kharif crops, especially paddy.
The farmers are also pinning their hopes on IMD’s first long-range forecast of above-normal monsoon this year, indicating a higher probability of excess rains, at least 105 per cent above the long-period average (LPA). The forecast involves a model error of +/-5 per cent. The long-period average for the seasonal rainfall over India from 1971 to 2020 is 87 cm.
The southwest monsoon is extremely crucial for India’s agrarian economy, since it provides over 75 per cent of the annual rains over India in just four months from June to September. Once it sets in over Kerala, the monsoon takes over a month to cover the rest of the country and completes its journey by July 8, marking the beginning of the four-month season.
Last year, the monsoon made its onset on May 31, covered the country by July 2, and ended the season with excess rains—108 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
In a major relief, the prevailing conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which tend to significantly affect the monsoon, are also neutral and likely to remain so during the season, ruling out any El Niño formation. With favourable conditions, the IMD is confident of a good monsoon this year, highlighting that the forecast probability of deficient or below-normal rains is just 11 per cent.
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