Last Updated:
Scientists warn a powerful Super El Nino may form by late 2026, driven by strong Pacific warming, threatening global weather shifts and weaker monsoon rains over India.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern where the surface water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than normal.
Weather patterns across India and several parts of the world are set to shift, driven largely by significant changes developing beneath the Pacific Ocean. Recent ocean data indicates strong subsurface warming, increasing the likelihood of a powerful El Niño event later this year. Occurring every 3–7 years, El Niño can have a profound impact on global climate patterns.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual.
At present, scientists have detected strong heat building below the ocean surface in the eastern Pacific. This warming is being driven by a large oceanic Kelvin wave — a mass of warm water moving across the ocean — caused by unusually strong westerly winds. Experts say this could develop into a “Super El Niño” by the second half of 2026, which may bring major changes to weather patterns around the world.
According to Severe Weather Europe, “This emerging warm phase is powered by a massive oceanic Kelvin wave currently surfacing in the eastern Pacific, driven by powerful westerly trade winds. Such intense warming in the tropics will greatly alter the global jet stream, impacting temperatures and precipitation across North America, Europe, and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere this summer.”
Scientists are comparing the current situation with past extreme events. Paul Roundy, an ENSO expert at the University at Albany, SUNY, cited by Nation Thailand, said that the westerly winds in the western tropical Pacific are already stronger than those seen in early 1997. He warned that this could lead to one of the strongest El Niño events in more than a hundred years.
A “Super El Niño” is when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rise by at least 2°C above normal. These events are rare but can have wide-ranging impacts.
The US Geological Survey explains, “The term El Niño (Spanish for ‘the Christ Child’) refers to a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The low-level surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator (“easterly winds”), instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing the other direction (from west to east or “westerly winds”). El Niño recurs irregularly, from two years to a decade, and no two events are exactly alike. El Niño events can disrupt normal weather patterns in the United States and globally.”
How Can It Affect India’s Weather Conditions?
El Niño can significantly affect India’s weather, mainly by weakening the southwest monsoon, which is crucial for the country’s rainfall. When the Pacific Ocean warms during El Niño, it changes wind patterns and reduces moisture flow towards India, often leading to below-normal rainfall, delayed monsoon, or uneven distribution of rain. This can increase the risk of droughts, heatwaves, and water shortages in some regions, while occasionally causing heavy rain in others.
April 09, 2026, 4:24 PM IST
Read More
Source link
[ad_3]
