Oil supply Shock To Worsen In April As Hormuz Closure Hits Europe: IEA Chief

Last Updated:April 01, 2026, 8:12 PM IST

IEA warns Hormuz closure has caused record oil disruptions, with April losses set to double March, jet fuel and diesel shortages spreading from Asia to Europe

IEA warns Hormuz closure has caused record oil disruptions, with April losses set to double March, jet fuel and diesel shortages spreading from Asia to Europe. (AFP photo)

Global oil supply disruptions are set to intensify in April, with Europe likely to feel the impact soon as supplies tighten following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said on Wednesday.

Speaking on a podcast with Norges Bank Investment Management CEO Nicolai Tangen, Birol warned that oil losses next month could be twice as high as in March, compounding an already severe energy crunch.

“The loss of oil in April will be twice the loss in March, on top of the loss of LNG,” he said, adding that jet fuel and diesel shortages are emerging as the most immediate concern.

Shortages spreading from Asia to Europe

Birol said the impact is already visible across Asia, which depends heavily on Gulf energy flows, but warned that Europe could face shortages as early as April or May.

“The biggest problem today is the lack of jet fuel and diesel,” he said, indicating that refined fuel shortages could hit economies even before crude supply stabilises.

12 million barrels per day already lost

According to the IEA, around 12 million barrels per day of oil supply have already been disrupted due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Birol added that nearly 40 key energy assets in the region have been damaged, further constraining production and transportation capacity.

He said the agency could consider releasing additional crude from strategic reserves if supply conditions worsen.

Hormuz closure triggers historic disruption

The crisis was triggered after Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz following US and Israeli strikes in late February, blocking a critical route through which around 20% of the world’s oil supply normally passes.

With tanker traffic disrupted, major Gulf producers such as Kuwait and Iraq have been forced to cut output, as exports cannot move freely without access to the strait.

The IEA has described the resulting supply shock — estimated at up to 20 million barrels per day — as the largest disruption in the history of the global oil market.

Global impact, poorer nations most at risk

The agency has already released record volumes from strategic stockpiles to stabilise markets and contain price spikes, but concerns remain about prolonged shortages.

“No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues,” Birol had warned earlier.

Experts say the impact will be uneven, with poorer countries facing the greatest risk, as they struggle to compete for limited supplies.

Lutz Kilian of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas noted that developing economies could be priced out of energy marketsworsening shortages.

Asia most exposed

Asia remains particularly vulnerable, with over 80% of oil and LNG shipments passing through Hormuz destined for the region.

As disruptions deepen, the crisis is expected to ripple across global energy markets, affecting fuel availability, prices and economic stability far beyond the Middle East.

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