Oil Shock And Hormuz Threats: Did Trump Misjudge Iran’s Next Move?

Last Updated:March 11, 2026, 11:10 IST

While experts urged the US to exercise caution in its decision, the White House insisted the administration “had a strong game plan” before the war began.

Trump downplayed warnings that Tehran could respond by targeting oil flows through the Middle East, says the report. (AFP)

In the run-up to the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, President Donald Trump and his advisers treated the risk to global energy markets as a short-term concern, prioritising what they saw as a decisive effort to weaken Iran’s leadership. US–Israel–Iran War LIVE

However, the plan did not unfold as expected, as Iran refused to budge and responded with force. The country not only targeted neighbouring Gulf nations but also bombed the US Fifth Fleet’s offices and embassies.

According to The New York Times, Trump had downplayed warnings that Tehran could respond by targeting oil flows through the Middle East. As of now, Iran has already initiated the installation of mines in the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring that oil-carrying ships will undoubtedly face damage. Trump has, however, responded to this threat, saying this move will attract a “never-before-seen consequence”.

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Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on February 18 that he was not worried about disruptions to oil supplies, recalling that during earlier strikes last June, “Oil prices blipped up and then went back down.”

Several advisers privately shared similar views, dismissing concerns that Iran might retaliate by closing shipping lanes that carry roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply.

Dubai, Abu Dhabi, UAE, News LIVE

The miscalculation became evident when Iran threatened commercial oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping slowed sharply, oil prices jumped, and the administration scrambled to contain the fallout as gasoline prices rose in the United States.

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This time, however, Iran’s response was much more aggressive than last year’s 12-day conflict, with missile and drone barrages targeting US bases, Arab cities and Israeli population centres. US officials had to go out of their way to quickly evacuate embassies and take measures to stabilise the oil market.

After a closed-door briefing to lawmakers, Senator Christopher S. Murphy said the administration had no clear plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and did “not know how to get it safely back open,” according to the New York Times.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted the administration “had a strong game plan” before the war began.

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“The purposeful disruption in the oil market by the Iranian regime is short-term and necessary for the long-term gain of wiping out these terrorists and the threat they pose to America and the world,” she said.

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