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Experts say markets will remain largely event-driven in the near term, with developments around US-Iran conflict, crude oil movement, and rupee stability acting as key triggers.
Nifty Prediction for Monday, March 30.
Nifty Prediction for Monday, March 30: Indian equity markets are expected to open on a cautious note on Monday, March 30, with analysts anticipating a weak bias and elevated volatility amid persistent global headwinds. The Gift Nifty also closed nearly 57.5 points lower at 22,769.5 on Friday, indicating a gap-down opening on Monday.
The Nifty ended last week at 22,819.60, down over 1%, as geopolitical tensions, rising crude oil prices, a weakening rupee, and continued foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows weighed on sentiment.
Global Cues, Oil Prices To Drive Market Direction
Experts believe markets will remain largely event-driven in the near term, with developments around the US-Iran conflict, crude oil movement, and rupee stability acting as key triggers.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a Sebi-registered online trading and wealth tech firm, said, “Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain volatile and driven by developments on the geopolitical front. Investors will be closely watching the situation in the Middle East, where any escalation or signs of easing could quickly shift sentiment, particularly through their impact on crude oil prices. Elevated oil prices are expected to keep pressure on markets, while any pullback could prompt short-covering and support a rebound. Foreign investor flows, moves in the rupee, and broader global market trends are also likely to play a key role in shaping the near-term outlook.”
An increase in crude prices near the $100 mark and the rupee hovering close to record lows are adding to inflation concerns and keeping investors risk-averse.
Nifty Levels To Watch: 22,500 Crucial Support
Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking said the Nifty has slipped below the 22,850 mark, indicating weakness, with immediate support placed around 22,500. A sustained break below this level could drag the index toward 22,000.
On the upside, 23,500 is seen as a strong resistance zone, and only a decisive move above this level can signal a recovery.
Downtrend Intact; Breakdown Risks Remain
According to Ponmudi R of Enrich Money, the index has already broken below the crucial 23,000 level, confirming continuation of the broader downtrend.
He added that while Nifty is attempting to stabilise near 22,850-22,750, a break below 22,700-22,500 could accelerate selling toward the 22,000-21,744 zone. Resistance is placed in the 23,000-23,500 range.
‘Sell on Rise’ Strategy Continues
Ravi Singh of Master Capital Services said the index remains below key technical levels, including the 200-day EMA, signalling a deepening bearish trend.
He identified 22,500-22,470 as a make-or-break support zone for Monday, while suggesting that the strategy remains “sell on rise” unless Nifty reclaims 23,500 decisively.
What To Expect On Monday
Analysts expect a volatile session with a negative bias. Any rebound toward 23,000–23,200 may face selling pressure, while a break below 22,500 could trigger sharper downside.
Overall, the market structure remains fragile, and a meaningful recovery will depend on easing geopolitical tensions, stability in crude oil prices, and moderation in FII outflows.
March 29, 2026, 09:18 IST
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