Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that at present there is no intention to close the Hormuz Strait. A day before, when Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an American attack, there were fears that Iran might close Hormuz. If Hormuz was closed, the price of crude oil could have increased from $ 70 per barrel to $ 120 per barrel. Its effect could be visible on petrol and diesel in India. However, experts still believe that the risk of increase in crude oil prices still remains. There are three reasons for this… 1. Attacks on oil tankers: Iran may not officially close the Hormuz Strait but it can attack oil tankers. Recently, three ships have also been attacked at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. After this attack, tanker companies are moving away from this route. If this ongoing war with Israel and America continues for a long time, then such attacks may continue in the future also. Due to this, shipping companies will be afraid to go through that route and despite the route being technically open, the supply of crude will come to a halt and prices will increase. 2. Insurance and shipping costs: In war-like situations, the risk on sea routes increases. Due to this, ‘war risk insurance’ and shipping freight of ships carrying crude oil becomes expensive. This increased cost ultimately drives up crude oil prices. 3. Panic in the market: The global market always runs on fears of the future. Until the tension in the Middle East does not end completely, crude oil prices may remain bullish. Now know its effect on the common people… 1. Petrol-diesel may increase by Rs 4-5 in India.. Petrol Diesel: Petrol in Delhi may increase from ₹ 95 per liter to ₹ 100. Whereas diesel can increase from ₹ 88 to ₹ 92. Prices may increase in a similar manner in other cities also. Earlier, when the news of closure of Hormuz came, experts were estimating that the price of crude oil could reach $ 120 per barrel. Whereas petrol can reach up to Rs 105. Now after the statement of Iran’s Foreign Minister, experts are predicting crude oil to reach $100. On this basis, the rate estimate of petrol and diesel has also been reduced slightly. India imports 90% of its oil needs. About 50% of this crude comes via Hormuz. Experts believe that if this route is completely or partially blocked, the supply of crude oil in the international market will decrease and crude oil prices will increase. Companies are free to change prices, but the final decision is in the hands of the government. The prices of petrol and diesel in India are decided by the government oil companies. It depends on the average price of crude oil in the international market and the position of the rupee against the dollar in the last 15 days. However, companies decide the base price. Taxes of the Central Government and State Governments form a major part of the final price reaching the common man. That is, oil companies are free to increase the price, but in reality the final decision depends on the attitude of the government. Whenever war-like situations arise, the government can suggest companies not to increase prices in order to maintain political and economic stability or can itself prevent the burden of increased prices from falling on the public by reducing taxes. 2. Gold-Silver: According to commodity expert Ajay Kedia, gold can increase from Rs 1.60 lakh per 10 grams to Rs 1.90 lakh. Silver is priced at Rs 2.67 lakh per kg which can increase to Rs 3.50 lakh. During times of war, investors consider gold as safe. 3. Stock Market: According to Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist of Infomerics Ratings, on February 28, 2026, the tension between America, Israel and Iran has suddenly increased. This has had a very bad impact on the world’s energy security and economic stability. Sharma said, the market is expected to open with a decline on Monday and a lot of ups and downs may be seen. The market may fall by about 1–1.5% in the short-term. There will be pressure on automobile, banking-finance and FMCG sectors. In times of stress like war, investors withdraw money from the market and invest it in safe places. Investors invest money in physical gold or gold bonds. Now know about the Strait of Hormuz… The Strait of Hormuz is about 167 km long waterway, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Both its mouths are about 50 km wide, while the narrowest part is about 33 km wide. It has a 3 km wide shipping lane for inbound and outbound maritime traffic. 20% of the world’s total petroleum passes through here. Apart from Iran, countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait also depend on it for their exports. More than 10% of India’s total ‘non-oil exports’ are supplied through this route. This includes Basmati rice, tea, spices and engineering goods. Every day approximately 17.8 million to 20.8 million barrels of crude oil and fuel goes through this route. Iran itself exports 17 lakh barrels of petroleum through this route every day. If Hormuz is closed, Iran will also suffer losses. After the death of the Supreme Leader, the Iranian Army is considering several options for retaliatory action. This includes targeting American military bases and attacking Israeli areas. But the biggest ‘geopolitical weapon’ that Iran has is to close the Strait of Hormuz. With this he can put pressure on the economy of the entire world. However, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s own economy may also be destroyed because it will not be able to export its own oil. Apart from this, China is the biggest buyer of Iran’s oil. If the supply is disrupted then relations with China may deteriorate. Saudi Arabia has an ‘East-West Pipeline’ as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. This 746 mile long pipeline goes from one end of the country to the other (Red Sea Terminal). Through this, 50 lakh barrels of crude oil can be sent daily. India and other Asian countries are keeping an eye on such alternative routes and safe reserves. India is increasing the import of oil from other countries. The government is already preparing to deal with this possible crisis. According to sources, India is increasing the purchase of oil from suppliers outside the Gulf countries. Apart from this, if needed, India can also extract oil from its ‘Strategic Petroleum Reserve’ (SPR). ———————————— Read this news also… Will petrol and diesel become expensive due to Iran-Israel war: Gold and silver prices will increase; If the sea route is closed, there will be a crisis on the supply of crude oil. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has died in the attacks by America and Israel. After this, 40 days of mourning has been declared in Iran. On Sunday morning, people were seen crying and scattered on the streets. Were seen raising slogans of retaliatory action from the government. Read the full news…
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Hormuz will not be closed but petrol and diesel may become expensive: prices may increase by 4-5 rupees; Gold expected to rise by ₹30 thousand; Impact of America-Iran war
