Ahmedabad: Gujarat’s baby boom is slowing sharply. In 2023, the state’s total fertility rate (TFR) stood at 1.8, slightly below the national average of 1.9, according to the recently released Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023 by the Census of India.
The TFR in Gujarat fell 24% between 2011-13 and 2021-23, marking the second steepest decadal drop among Indian states, after Delhi’s 27.8%. Only three states – Gujarat, Delhi and Jharkhand (21.4%) – recorded a drop of more than 20%.
The SRS report defines the TFR as the “average number of children expected to be born per woman during her entire span of reproductive period, assuming age-specific fertility rates remain the same and there is no mortality”.
Population Replacement Under Threat
Dr Parth Shah, secretary of the Ahmedabad Obstetrics and Gynecology Society (AOGS), explained that a TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level, necessary to maintain population stability.
“Going below that level signals overall population depletion. This is a hot topic worldwide with ageing populations. Factors include delayed marriages, family planning choices and shrinking family sizes,” he said.
He pointed out that the average age at childbirth has risen over the last decade, from 25-26 years in 2010 to 28-35 years today. “Only about 20% of patients come for a second child. Deliveries of a third child are extremely rare. We might see one patient every 2-3 months,” he added.
Birth Rate Trends Reflect Decline
The report also highlighted Gujarat’s fall in crude birth rate (CBR), the annual number of live births per 1,000 persons.
Nationally, the CBR dropped from 21.6 to 18.9, a 12.5% decline. In Gujarat, the decline was sharper, falling from 22.2 to 18.3, a 17.6% drop over the decade.
Awareness Gaps Remain
Renu Khanna, director of Sahaj, an NGO working on public health, gender and rights, emphasised the importance of looking beyond macro-level trends.
“In our work with urban and rural women, we have seen that very few have adequate knowledge of reproductive health, let alone family planning,” she said.
Gujarat’s TFR trends reflect a broader shift across India and the world, as families delay childbirth, limit the number of children and grapple with growing awareness gaps in reproductive health.
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