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The true test of any US exit from the conflict will not be within the borders of Iran, but within the waters of the Strait of Hormuz
A plume of smoke rises after a strike on the Iranian capital Tehran. (Photo: AFP)
Will the Iran war end soon? As US President Donald Trump signals that Washington may be preparing to “wind down” its military campaign against Iran, developments on the ground suggest a far more complex reality. Though the White House talks of nearing its objectives, troop deployments are increasing, naval assets are expanding, and the most critical flashpoint, the Strait of Hormuz, remains unstable.
Amid the uncertainty, these four key questions will decide the next phase of the Iran war:
1. Is The US Actually Preparing To End The War?
This is because Trump’s recent statements point towards the fact that the American forces are close to achieving their objectives and the operations could be scaled down in the near future as the endgame is in sight.
However, officials and analysts point towards the fact that despite the assurances, US military deployments in the region are on the rise, air operations are ongoing, and there is no ceasefire framework in place.
Simply put, the United States is keeping its exit options open while keeping up the pressure—preparing to wind down but not to disengage.
2. Why Is The Strait Of Hormuz Central To The Conflict?
The true test of any US exit from the conflict will not be within the borders of Iran, but within the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world, as it carries a fifth of the world’s oil. Since the conflict began, tankers and vessels passing through the strait have significantly diminished, causing oil prices to rise.
Trump claims the US does not need the strait and that those who need it should take care of it. However, the fact remains that the oil situation remains unstable, and the world’s energy security remains at risk. The US will not be spared for a long time if the conflict continues.
Even if the war comes to an end, the continuation of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to impact the world’s oil supplies, including those of the US.
3. Why Can’t The US Simply Secure Hormuz And Exit?
This is much harder than winning any war. The Iranians have the advantage of asymmetry in the strait. They possess naval mines and drones and can attack intermittently. This allows them to maintain instability in the strait without sparking a war. The US, on the other hand, has only a few choices. If it escalates military action, it might spark a war. However, if it does not, it might have to accept the instability. Moreover, the US has the added challenge of its allies, especially those in NATO, who seem hesitant to commit troops to the strait.
4. What Is The Core Contradiction In Trump’s Strategy?
At the center of this policy is a fundamental dilemma: to end the war or to apply maximum pressure.
In other words, Trump is seeking to end the war, withdraw the United States, and declare victory. At the same time, he is maintaining troop deployments in the region, pursuing a strategy of deterrence, ruling out a ceasefire, criticising NATO allies for not doing their part, and asking other countries to bear the responsibility of protecting the Strait of Hormuz.
In short, this is a dual policy of Rhetorical De-escalation vs. Operational Escalation.
There are also internal contradictions in the administration, which is concerned that leaving too early might undermine their leverage, but staying longer might lead to a deeper conflict.
In short, the United States is seeking to balance two competing objectives: to end the war and to leave the conflict, but this balance might not work. It is possible that the United States is close to achieving its objectives on the battlefield, but the conflict, which is related to issues of energy security, the global economy, and maritime security, is far from over. In short, the conflict might not end in Iran, but in the Strait of Hormuz.
March 21, 2026, 1:44 PM IST
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