Seven rounds of the Candidates 2026 tournament are done. We are now at the halfway stage of the marathon that will determine who challenges Gukesh for the World Chess Championship.
Two clear trends have emerged in this edition. Unlike the 2024 Candidates in Canada, the script has flipped. In 2024, the women’s category was one-sided, with Tan Zhongyi running away from the field. The Open category, meanwhile, went down to the wire, with Gukesh needing the Fabiano Caruana–Ian Nepomniachtchi game to end in a draw to clinch the title.
In 2026, it’s the opposite. The Open category looks all but settled, with Javokhir Sindarov building a gap over the rest of the field. The women’s section, however, is wide open, with Vaishali Rameshbabu’s two consecutive wins pushing her to within half a point of Anna Muzychuk.
So what should Indian fans realistically expect from Candidates 2026?
In the Open category, Praggnanandhaa now finds himself in a position where he likely needs five or six wins from the remaining seven games to stay in contention. Even that may not be enough. Those wins would have to coincide with a dip in Sindarov’s form in the second half of the tournament.
That makes the situation fairly clear. India’s hopes in the Open section are fading, and a Sindarov vs Gukesh World Championship clash at the end of 2026 is increasingly looking likely.
The women’s section, however, offers real promise.
Vaishali’s back-to-back wins, following her loss to Zhu Jiner in Round 5, have firmly placed her in the title race. Much like the India vs China narrative of 2024 between Gukesh and Ding Liren, the possibility of Vaishali facing Ju Wenjun is beginning to take shape.
On the other hand, Divya Deshmukh’s missed opportunity against Kateryna Lagno could prove costly.
WHAT HAS CLICKED FOR VAISHALI?
Across the tournament so far, Vaishali has looked solid in both preparation and tactical awareness.
In her first four rounds, she held her ground with composed draws. However, Round 5 against Zhu Jiner exposed a crack. A single inaccuracy – King e6 – complicated the endgame, and from there, things unravelled. With Zhu holding an extra pawn and a more active king, Vaishali was always on the back foot, eventually resigning after 62 moves.
But that loss seems to have triggered a reset.
In Round 6, Vaishali’s King’s Pawn opening, combined with the Berlin Defence, gave her a stable position early. Lagno, under time pressure, began to falter. Although Vaishali also had a moment of inaccuracy with her Queen to f6, Lagno’s rook move to c1 opened the floodgates. Three blunders in 11 moves allowed Vaishali to capitalise and secure the win.
Round 7 followed a similar pattern.
Once again, the King’s Pawn opening gave Vaishali a foothold. She was under pressure at one stage, but Tan Zhongyi’s rook move to a1 proved to be a decisive mistake. Vaishali seized the moment to register back-to-back victories.
PRAGG FALLS BEHIND, DIVYA FAILS TO CAPITALISE
Divya Deshmukh, too, had begun to build momentum after a slow start.
Her win against Bibisara Assaubayeva was a statement, as she capitalised on a major blunder (Queen d3) to finish in style. The result was important, especially after a loss to Zhu Jiner in Round 4 and a draw against Tan Zhongyi.
The Candidates, however, has once again highlighted how quickly fortunes can shift in chess. Just months ago, at the World Cup, Divya was consistently defeating top Chinese players like Tan and Zhu. In this tournament, she has struggled to replicate that form.
What has hurt her the most is the 135-move marathon against Lagno.
For much of that game, Divya held the advantage. But converting that edge required patience and precision. Instead, a single king move to c1 allowed the position to slip. What could have been a defining win turned into a draw.
In the Open category, meanwhile, no one has found a way past Sindarov.
The Uzbek star has been relentless, combining sharp preparation with discipline. Praggnanandhaa experienced this firsthand in Round 3. In a complex middlegame, Pragg’s rook move to c5 allowed the advantage to dissipate, while Sindarov remained composed.
The 19-year-old is putting together the kind of campaign reminiscent of Ian Nepomniachtchi in 2022, when he surged ahead and finished with 9.5/14. Sindarov could even challenge the record for most points in a single Candidates tournament since the eight-player double round-robin format was introduced in 2013.
One thing, however, is becoming increasingly clear.
The dream of an all-Indian World Championship final is slipping away. And if that is the case, Gukesh may have a monumental challenge ahead in the form of Sindarov.
– Ends
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