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Shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) — BPCL, HPCL and IOC — may come under pressure on Monday amid the ongoing west asia conflict
Oil Stocks Today
Shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) — Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) — may come under pressure on Monday amid the escalating conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel in the Middle East. In contrast, upstream players such as Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd (ONGC), GAIL and Oil India could remain resilient. The move follows a 10% jump in Brent crude to $80 per barrel in over-the-counter trade, according to Reuters.
Emkay Global said OMCs may find it difficult to pass on higher input costs to consumers. The brokerage added that upstream stocks like ONGC and Oil India offer better protection in the current scenario, although part of the gains could be offset by potential windfall taxes.
The joint US-Israel strikes reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with several senior officials from the IRGC, intelligence and national security establishments. Iran has since responded with missile and drone attacks on US bases in the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain, shifting the situation from a looming threat to an active military confrontation.
JM Financial, in its scenario analysis, said any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push crude prices beyond $90 per barrel, while a broader regional conflict may drive prices above $100 per barrel.
For India, the implications are significant. Every $1 increase in crude prices raises the country’s annual import bill by about $2 billion, straining the trade balance. “Upstream energy and defence may see relative support, while oil-sensitive sectors such as OMCs, paints, tyres, aviation and chemicals could face margin pressure. Crude remains the key macro variable for Indian equities under the current escalation scenario,” the brokerage noted.
Equirus Securities said markets do not price wars in a linear fashion. If tensions escalate to the point of threatening the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium could become structural rather than incremental.
“Even partial disruption risk could embed a $20–$40 per barrel geopolitical premium, reopening a pathway toward $95–$110+, well beyond the mechanical impact of Iran’s barrels alone,” it said in a note.
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March 02, 2026, 08:37 IST
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